For most Americans, going home for Thanksgiving is a given. You don’t go to Aspen. You don’t go to Tahiti. You go home, wherever home may be.

And thats why Thanksgiving is the busiest travel period of the year. And why the absolute busiest travel days of any year are the Wednesday before, and the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Warning Massive Crowds Ahead

Crowds ahead? Oh, yes. And I’m not just talking about the mobs at the airport. The planes will be packed.

Given this summers record-breaking passenger numbers and the well-documented flight-delay follies, we at FareCompare thought it would be interesting to look at flight schedules and compare Thanksgiving 2006 with whats ahead for us later in November.

Fewer Seats = More Trouble

Heres what we learned and can pretty accurately predict:

• Several major airlines have greatly reduced the number of seats
• Occupancy is likely to be near 100% if demand is the same or more than 2006
• Bad weather could throw hundreds of schedules into complete disarray

Take a look at the chart below which shows the decrease/increase in the number of seats flown on the 2 peak days last Thanksgiving (2006) vs. this year (hint – the ones at the top avoid if possible):

Yes, some of the smaller airlines are adding seats; but the Bigger Boys of the airline industry have greatly reduced the number of seats they are flying this year compared to last. It is unlikely that demand has gone down for these coveted travel days so look for higher prices (if you can actually find a seat).

And … if something goes wrong (Hello, Mother Nature!), delays and stranded passengers will be rampant.

To put the number of seats on a given departure day in context, we’ll use 100 seats as an average for a flight — the thinking is that there are very few wide-body aircraft flown domestically (170 seats and up), and in recent history many commuter aircraft have been added to airlines fleets (80 seats and less), which makes 100 a pretty good average — so, 10,000-seats (added or dropped) would be roughly equivalent to 100-flights per day.

Several Cities Will Feel the Squeeze

We also took a look at specific cities that will be hit particularly hard by the reduced number of seats. We call this list, the Top 11-Worst Thanksgiving Cities (I was told “top 10″ was a registered trademark …)

If your city made this list, be prepared for trouble and by all means steer clear of connections through these cities.

Preparing for Problems on Thanksgiving Flights

If you run into delays or cancellations, have a back-up plan. Here are a few quick tips to help you plan, and make your travels a bit more comfortable:

• Document - Bring a copy of your airlines Contract of Carriage on the plane; it’ll tell you what your airline may or may not do for you if problems arise (find it by typing carriage in the websites search area)
• Non-Stop – Pay the premium if its available, don’t risk a connection (you’ll thank me later)
• Carry On – If you cant fly non-stop (or even if you can), pack light and carry your bags on board (the odds of a baggage snafu on these days is greatly increased)
• Alternate Flights – Have a list of alternate flights (for your airline and others) in case of delays or cancellations
• Food - Bring a snack or some energy bars and water with you (well you’ll have to get the water inside security unless you care to lug through a few shot glass size bottles)
• Hotels - Have local phone numbers for airport-area hotels handy for your connection airport; remember, a hotel website may say no-vacancy, but franchise hotels have rooms for walk-ins that are not posted on the central reservation system or the website
• Relax - You’ll get there eventually, and some even say turkey actually tastes better — the second day …

– (more holiday travel tips from a few weeks ago) –

Update – In the spirit of fairness (per Alex’s comment), Here are the best cities to depart or connect through (those with added seats this Thanksgiving):