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October 3, 2007

Travel Myth - Shop “Very Early” to Get the Best Deal

Filed under: Travel Myths, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 3:15 pm

One of my biggest pet peeves is the notion that shopping “very early” will always get you the best deal. Yes, the early bird does get the worm, but when it comes to air travel the “very early” bird gets punched in the nose.

It should be noted that this discussion is only related to purchasing domestic U.S. airline tickets (not international).

First I want to be very clear that procrastination is not — I repeat NOT — a good idea. If you buy an airline ticket inside 14 days before departure, you are going to pay business rates which can be 3-6 times the rate had you purchased outside 14 days before departure.

So…when to start shopping? Click “more.”

Airlines tend to manage their revenue extremely closely in a 4-month time window before departure, this means airlines are reacting to competition, trying to steal market share and generally giving you their best deals in this 4-month time window.

Outside this 4-month window departure window, airlines are generally going to charge you the “non-competitive” rate which tends to be much higher than the rate in “going rate” — anywhere from $40 to $200 more!

The best time to start shopping for U.S. domestic airline tickets is 4 months before departure.

Many legacy airlines are even more blatant about raising prices outside of the Southwest Airlines flight schedule departure window. Southwest is the largest domestic airline by a long shot, and they only allow tickets to be sold in a 4 to 5 month departure window (currently ending in early March) — this means Southwest will NOT sell you a ticket departing later than March 7, 2008 (today).

Many legacy airlines on the day after the Southwest doesn’t have departures — raise their airfares significantly.

The following example (see my comment on the previous example I removed) shows this very clearly — on March 8, the day after the Southwest schedule ends for Austin to Albuquerque American and Continental raise their cheapest prices by an additional $150 and $60 respectively!

The only exception to this 4-month departure time window rule is peak holiday travel, where you should be shopping year round — know that you’ll pay a premium for these peak days — just try to pay the smallest premium.

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21 Comments »

For International Travel, it is much more difficult to described a perfect time. International travel has 4-5 seasons where prices can differ by over $1000. It is best to signup for international email alerts early and let them guide you to the best deals. This autumn/winter has seen tons of international sales, prices will be picking up for early spring and summer travel by hundreds of dollars.

Comment by Rick Seaney — October 3, 2007 @ 10:32 pm
I’m planning a trip to Orlando w/my family from Honolulu during the 1st week in June for about 2 weeks. I’d like to get 1st Class at the lowest possible price. Does your suggestion apply to that class of fare as well?

Comment by Ralph Yasuoka — October 4, 2007 @ 12:56 am
My question is a little different. I need fares from Indianapolis to Honolulu (2 upgraded using air miles) roundtrip in the September-October timeframe next year (2008) I usually buy early for 1st class (I am 6′3″ and approximately 400 pounds) and pay approximately $750 per patron.

Comment by Chris Tipton — October 4, 2007 @ 4:29 am
This comes at the perfect time as my family is planning a first Disneyworld trip at the beginning of February. We’d like to fly out of Buffalo, but will drive if the right price doesn’t come up.
Thanks for the free information for the “family travel first-timers”.

Comment by Julie E. — October 4, 2007 @ 7:09 am
Hi Ralph, (comment #2)

First class prices do fluctuate from time to time so I suggest you set up a first class email alert for Orlando-Honolulu to track the prices. Unfortunately Hawaii is a very popular destination for Frequent Fliers who after being frustrated at not being able to get coach tickets will splurge and take up First Class which causes the airlines to be less inclined to release cheaper first class seats. I am not saying it can’t happen but your more likely to have luck with coach. This is true of several popular destination U.S. cities like Las Vegas, Orlando, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and South Florida.

Several people sent me notes about buying a super cheap ATA airfare mistake I posted a while back from Orlando to Honolulu, so it can happen…

Comment by Rick Seaney — October 4, 2007 @ 7:39 am
Hi Chris, (comment #3)

Setting up a coach class alert for IND-HNL is your best bet to track the prices to make the best purchase so you can then upgrade on miles. You can take a look at the current prices at the flexible year page, you can add your favorite airline at the bottom right. It might not hurt to setup a first class alert as well, but see comment #5 for issues on that.

In your case this trip is almost a year away (you can only by tickets 11 months in advance) — Hawaii is treated more like an international destination so you should be shopping year round, you already have a price point in mind, so the trick is to beat that. Also since your upgrading for a popular destination (and will be connecting) you are competing with others that want to upgrade, so you should do this as early as possible (like trying to get a frequent flier ticket to Hawaii, where everyone is trying almost a year in advance).

Comment by Rick Seaney — October 4, 2007 @ 7:49 am
I have a daughter who lives in Italy. She flys over on Delta each year purchasing her tickets in Europe and paying for them in Euros. Would I save her money by arranging her flight from the U.S. and paying for the tickets in U.S. Dollars? Would the airlines issue a such ticket for a trip that iniates in Europe or whould she have difficulties using it?

Randy Randazzo

Comment by Randy Randazzo — October 4, 2007 @ 9:03 am
Hi Rick,

I am planning to go to St. Maarteen June 7th through the 14th. When is a good time to start to look and buy these tickets? I have tried early and late but don’t seem to have much luck getting a good deal.

Thanks,

Larry

Comment by Larry — October 4, 2007 @ 9:28 am
Rick,
What are the best site to sign up for for international fare email alerts?
Thank you

Comment by Bob Cancelliere — October 4, 2007 @ 9:32 am
Hi Randy, (comment #7)

All my Austrian relatives came over this summer and stayed with us and brought empty suit cases to carry back to spend their windfall in the exchange rate ($1.40 last I saw for a Euro).

First, with the relaxing of rules in the past few years you can easily by a ticket for your daughter here with not issue of her using it.

The airlines file international airfares directionally and to some degree they compensate for the exchange rate (although IATA (International Air Transport Association) only set the airfare quoting exchange rate a few times a year).

I would have your daughter buy the ticket in Europe, they tend to have many more deals and are more deal focused for inbound travel to the U.S. (recently we saw 99EUR airfares LON->NYC) and she should be able to pick up a nice exchange rate bonus.

Comment by Rick Seaney — October 4, 2007 @ 10:07 am
I’m trying to find the best deal on tickets to Cabo San Lucas, MX in mid-May. Should I jump on the fares I’m finding for around $470, or does something cheaper usually come available. Thanks!

Comment by Kim — October 4, 2007 @ 10:10 am
Hi Rick,

I’m planning two trips. One to London and Amsterdamn on Christmas and another in May to Ghana. Am I too late to get a good fare for the December trip? The lowest I’ve seen is $624. What is a fair rate for travel to Ghana and when should I look for those fares?

Thanks!

Comment by Stefanie — October 4, 2007 @ 12:25 pm
Rick -

Can you clarify your comment about international fares for next summer? My parents are currently looking at nonstop flights to Italy for next June at around $1350.

Thanks.

Todd

Comment by Todd — October 4, 2007 @ 1:07 pm
Hi there.

I am planning a trip to Egypt with my two small children, husband, parents, my brother and my sister. We have to go in July because that’s when our daycare provider is closed for two weeks.

I’ve set the alert at farecompare, but the outcome looks expensive. Any ideas or suggestions for us?

Thank you!

I appreciate your time and your expertise!

Comment by Mona — October 4, 2007 @ 2:57 pm
I am too late to buy tickets for the Christmas vacations? Did the prices go up already? I am flying form Victoria BC to Montreal Qc. Thanks

Comment by Jasmine — October 4, 2007 @ 3:53 pm
Hi Rick,

My family is going on a Mediterranean Cruise next May/June and we need to fly from Phoenix to Rome. Right now the airfare (after taxes/fees) is around $1,400. We’re leaving Phoenix on May 27th and returning on June 10th. In your opinion is this price going to be “as good as it gets” or do you think it may drop between now and then?

Thanks for your help and I love your site.

Kevin

Comment by Kevin — October 4, 2007 @ 3:54 pm
looking for 4 tickets from colorado springs or denver, co to west palm beach or ft. lauderdale, fl leaving right after new years and returning about january 12, 2008.

thank you.

bill

Comment by bill bonus — October 4, 2007 @ 9:37 pm
Our family of four is looking to visit London and Paris next Spring break (3/21/08 -3/29/08). We will be flying from Green Bay to London, and Paris back to Green Bay or into Paris, and out of London. Back in August, I saw $700 on NW (1 stop), and at that time NW was running a 15% sale for every flight. If I had booked the flight, I would have paid about $600/pp. I did not act on it, my husband thinks there will be always European fares specials running, especially for flights going to/from London/Paris. The price now ranges $900. Did I miss the golden opportunity? Is it true that London/Paris fare always have specials going on?

Thank you.

Comment by Jieru — October 4, 2007 @ 11:40 pm
I had an example before of SAN-PVD, which was a bad example of legacy airlines increasing the day after Southwest schedules end (I didn’t notice the Tue/Wed airfare sale) as pointed out to me by someone via email.

I have changed the example to show the behavior between AUS-ABQ, this is not uncommon behavior by legacy airlines and it catches people that shop too early. I apologize for my sloppiness on the previous example.

Comment by Rick Seaney — October 4, 2007 @ 11:45 pm
Question: each year I book for travel from Boston to the College Hockey National Championship games in April, this year in Denver. Different site every year, around the country (last year in St. Louis, for example).

With Boston being a home of other fans going to the games as well, and limited choices for flights as the games are on Thursday and Saturday each year (meaning return on Sunday), I have found that waiting even a bit long after flights are first posted to websites for the will result in less available seats and higher prices, once fans lock in their flight arrangements.

Is such a tournament the exception to your advice NOT to book very early ? Any specific advice on getting deals on this sort of “event” travel ? Thanks.

Comment by Dan the Hockey Fan — October 9, 2007 @ 3:30 pm
In fact, what you say about being “too early” is also — in many cases — true of international fares. A quick look at the fares for this summer (2008) shows RT fares to London from Minneapolis at around $1200. Though these will probably not be halved in the coming months, they will most likely go down by at least $200-$400. I travel to the UK or France almost and fares are always much more expensive in late winter/early spring than they ever are in spring/late spring.

Comment by Evan Bibbee — January 31, 2008 @ 1:47 pm