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Bottom line: Fliers will have plenty of opportunities to play “who-gets-the-armrest” this year. In other words, the planes will be packed. More than ever before. I’ll explain why and tell you what it all means. I’ll also give you the silver-lining: there are things you can do, so read on… |
The reasons for my gloomy outlook? It’s pretty simple:
2008 CHALLENGES
- Possible economic downturn (many financial experts are predicting a slow down)
- Rising jet fuel prices (on Jan. 3, oil prices hit $100 a barrel)
- Valuation of the U.S. Dollar (or lack thereof)
Now, for my predictions (or more accurately, some of my thought-out conclusions).
WHAT THIS MEANS
- Legacy airlines will continue reduce seat capacity
- Expect smaller planes holding more passengers (airlines will trade in their 140-seaters, in favor of 70- and 50-seat planes)
- Expect to see some routes dropped
- Watch for higher airline ticket prices
- Smaller, regional airports will feel the brunt of this (due to lack of competition)
- Fewer airfare “deals”
- Merger Mania
- Talk (and possibly action) of legacy airlines merging will increase (think United/Delta)
- Less competition means less choice and higher airline ticket prices for passengers
- Airline expansion slows
- Low cost airlines will slow their rate of expansion (Southwest and others)
- Business class cutbacks: the demise of Maxjet and the apparent stalling of Virgin Atlantic’s “all business airline” may slow domestic business class “improvements” and the trend toward lower prices for business class
- Government involvement
- JFK traffic directives removes popular flights at peak times
- Passenger rights bills may become a “hot button” issue on the state and federal level
- More passenger inconvenience
- Dropped cities, routes
- More competition for popular flights (especially in and out of NYC)
- Fewer available seats for frequent flier program members
A LITTLE GOOD NEWS
- International Flights
- Prices will stay relatively low, relatively stable
- “Open Skies” may create more competition with lower cost airlines
- New jetliners (Boeing’s Dreamliner end of 2008) could add capacity
- China Olympics interests may open up seats/capacity to Asia
- Domestic Flights
- Fliers in some cities will get a break (for example, San Francisco, home to Virgin America, will likely get the benefits of Virgin’s expected 2008 route expansion)
WHAT YOU CAN DO
- Shop early; I cannot stress this enough (for major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas, begin looking NOW).
- Procrastinators, there may be NO last minute deals this time; you too must shop early
- Be Flexible and you’ll greatly increase your chances to grab a cheap flight
- Use every technological tool at your disposal; I recommend FareCompare’s Airfare Email Alerts
So there you have it; my predictions. It looks like it won’t be a great year, but together we can make it the “cheapest possible airfare” year.
And yes, we may still be wrestling for the best “armrest advantage”, but, at least we’ll be on that plane, with a better airfare price than almost anyone else onboard!
Look, if you really want an arm rest that badly then pay for first or business class. If your goal is the cheapest fare possible then you really can’t complain as long as you get a seat, leave and arrive close to on time and have a safe, clean plane with competent staff. Real problem is lack of tiered pricing for amenities. Getting rid of food service was a great idea, if i want something to eat i’ll bring it. AirCanada has gone one better and on cheap tickets lets you choose to add or cut more options - no checked luggage save an additional $5, no pre-selected seats save an additional $15, etc. Next step will be to hold certain seats for frequent fliers with status or those paying more. My prediction is that people traveling on the cheapest of the cheap tickets won’t be able to pick seats in advance.
Comment by cd — January 4, 2008 @ 6:22 pm
Book early you say. I have been tracking fares on Delta usually Jax-Las. I have noted that most often the highest fares are those more than 10 weeks prior to departure. The optimum time frame seems to be 6 weeks for this routing.
My approach is to know what is a good fare and when it appears grab it. Of course when prices are rising than you can only guess what is good.
Comment by John Zumrick — January 6, 2008 @ 2:16 pm
I think you got it all wrong. Are you allowed to bring food and drinks from home? Nearly at all airport chekcs I was FORCED to either throw them away in the wastebasket or consume them before boarding. So, there is either
-You BUY food and drinks on board
-or you just starve or get terribly thirsty.
There is nothing like “I bring my own food and water”. Another to way to FORCE people to buy instead of free snacks.
Comment by SG — January 7, 2008 @ 6:16 am
Comment by Rick Seaney — January 7, 2008 @ 11:03 am
you had recommended not to buy tickets more than 4 months in advance…is this still true
Comment by lh — January 12, 2008 @ 10:58 pm
Comment by Rick Seaney — January 14, 2008 @ 10:41 am
I am interested in flying to and from Paris, France from either Birmingham, AL or Atlanta, GA on 12/25 and 1/1 respectively.
Please advise where to start looking.
I would appreciate any emails on changes in pricing.
Comment by Kathy Nailen — November 7, 2008 @ 1:48 am