Just the other day, I was thinking about my air travel predictions for this year when, it hit me: airfare is the iPhone of 2008. No, I haven’t gone round the bend. Still have most of my marbles. But, there are a lot of valid things to be said for comparing finding airfare today, and the experience of folks who stood in line to get that first edition iPhone. Okay, I can explain! And, I’ll also let you in on my 7-best tips for getting the cheapest tickets in today’s crazy airfare market. Just click “more” to see it all.

So Who Are the Big Supply & Demand LOSERS?

When Apple announced its iPhone would go on sale in 2007, people went bonkers; everyone wanted one. And Apple was sitting pretty, just like the airlines are today. Both have something people want, and in this market, supply and demand skews in favor of the seller.

• Pressure from the finance guys: Wall St. has been after legacy airlines to reduce domestic capacity so they won’t be wasting money flying planes with empty seats — I still hate the term “pricing discipline” but there you have it.
• Competition from “lower cost airlines”: legacy carriers found they couldn’t raise prices whenever they wanted since the discount guys were only too happy to step in with lower prices and steal the legacy passengers.
• Fuel prices go crazy: this forced airlines to ground some larger planes, which meant…less “supply”.
• Fuel prices go REALLY crazy: essentially the fuel crisis worsened far more quickly than anticipated, so airlines had to ground even more aircraft
• Airlines are spying on us: well, spying may be a little harsh, but the airlines have gotten a lot better at studying our buying habits - and with that knowledge, they have been moving planes and flight schedules around like chess pieces, to find the right combination that will make them the most money — imagine that a business that wants to make money ….

Steve Jobs Must be Jealous!

Okay, so in the airline industry, we have demand outstripping supply, just as the demand for iPhones went over-the-top, and both “demands” began last summer. But the airline frenzy didn’t really begin to heat up until Labor Day: that’s when the airlines began a series of airfare hikes, 10-in a row, which brought average ticket prices to new 4-year highs.

You think Steve Jobs is clever? Sometimes I don’t think he’s anywhere near as slick as some of these airline honchos. Consider this: in the midst of all these airfare ticket hikes, the airlines also start flooding the market with airfare sales; but these were highly-targeted, carefully-marketed sales to a tiny percentage of passengers. So, the airlines get credit for being good guys by having sales, but since few can take advantage of them, it cost the airlines hardly anything!

So the Airlines Win, Right? Uh…Maybe Not

Yes, even for airlines, all good things come to an end. That light at the end of the tunnel? Could be an on-rushing train (or maybe an Airbus A380).

The problem is, supply and demand is a tricky thing, a fluid thing, thanks to forces like Fuel, Competition, Currency and the Economy.

Please Don’t Use the “R” Word

The first blow to the airlines’ economic house-of-cards could be that nasty little “R” word (I don’t like to say the word “recession” because like Jim Cramer I think it can be a self fulfilling prophecy); in any event, some say it is already upon us …

• What about fuel prices: expect them to get worse before they get better.
• Don’t forget the dollar: the Euro is hovering at about $1.50, which means no bargains for Americans heading to Europe.
• And what about domestic travelers? How long before they decide to think twice before shelling out $600 for a round-trip ticket?
• Let’s talk corporate travel: what happens when companies begin to rein in business travel? After all, a video-conference call is a heckuva lot cheaper.

Okay, so if — and this is still a big “if” — if the “supply” of seats begins to soften, will the airlines be forced to drop prices? Just like Apple dropped prices a few months after the debut of the iPhone?

What Do We Do, Rick? “Use Technology, and Get Schooled!”

Let’s get one thing straight: no self-respecting, even faintly intelligent tech-geek (like yours truly) would ever buy the first version of any product (including the iPhone). The typical “version 1.0″ has glitches, bugs…or they simply break down. So, you wait. You study. You compare. You use all the means at your disposal, and then you go shopping.

And that’s what we have to do when we shop for airfare. Especially now, when finding a super deal gets harder and harder all the time.

But yes, there are still deals out there, even though over 50% of all internet households book their tickets online. That means there are about 100-million armchair travel agents hunting-and-pecking their way through a myriad of travel quoting sites, but…they have no formal training.

Sorry, but you need some training (or call it education, call it insight). FareCompare can provide that; we offer technology and training. And no, it’s not hard; in fact, it can be downright fun.

Come to the University of FareCompare - No Tests, No Homework!

You can find our training throughout our “search” areas, if you simply read all the advice and “how-to” information we provide. And try out all the options we give you, on our My Trips site, for example; we show you how to compare the prices you find with other sources, so you don’t miss out on the cheapest available airfare. Plus, there’s plenty of great advice on our blogs (“Ask Rick”, “RickSeaney”, “Deals” and many more); all are listed right there on the FareCompare homepage. I urge you to check them all out, and “school yourself.” I guarantee you’ll be glad you did.

Bottom line: if you want to be in the elite 10% of passengers who get the best available deal, you need to use new and innovative technology and get educated. And FareCompare can get you there.

Top 7-Tips For Finding Great Airfare in 2008

• Start shopping earlier - not booking earlier, but shopping earlier. Start 4-months (or more) before departure. This will give you the time you need to make a good decision and this is the time-frame when airlines actively start changing prices (any earlier, and all the airlines usually have are mid-tier prices that are anything but cheap!)
• Sign up for Free Airfare Email Alerts. You will be alerted the instant cheap airfares are available to your destination. And no one alerts you faster than FareCompare, because no one else has our technology (and that includes the airlines).
• Be flexible. This is not a new tip, but it’s one that’s more important than ever, since airlines know our habits better than ever.
• When you see a good ticket price, buy it. Don’t dawdle; that great ticket price may well disappear within a few hours. Everyone plays the “buy-cheap-airfare” game these days, so you have a lot more competition than you used to.
• Know what a good price for your trip is. Sounds simple? Maybe. But then maybe you think $300 dollars is a great price for a particular route, when a quick check of FareCompare’s historical timeline shows $150 is a more common price for that route.
• Know your rights. We’re talking about your rights with the airlines, in case of cancellations or delays; you don’t have many, but knowing what rights you do have, can save you time and money (and may prevent melt-downs on both sides).
• Continue to educate yourself. Keep coming back here, and I will continue to share what I have learned (and so will others at FareCompare). Hey, if we are going to continue to be armchair travel agents, we should be the very best ones we can be.