There has only been a smattering of activity related to the 40$ roundtrip fuel surcharges over the past four airfare distribution cycles since Sunday evening (including this morning’s 10:00am EST airfare distribution). The fuel surcharge related activity since Sunday includes: Midwest Airlines joined in and matched the $40 roundtrip fuel surcharge increase Northwest Airlines matched the $40 roundtrip fuel surcharge increase on an additional 600 markets (city pairs) It appears that this particular attempt at a fuel surcharge increase is going to “stick” - airfare hikes are now batting .500 for 2008 with four airline ticket increase attempts in the first four weeks of the year - two of which that have been mostly “sticky”…

I would not be surprised to see more airfare hike attempts in the coming weeks as the “trifecta” for higher airline ticket prices continues:

• Firm Demand - Domestic airlines continue to provide positive near term travel demand guidance on their Q4 earnings calls
• Restrained Supply - Legacy & lower cost airlines continue to “right” size their domestic flight schedules
• High Fuel Costs - Jet fuel prices remain near all time highs

Amidst all the increases, domestic airlines (especially lower cost airlines) continue to fire out off-peak travel airfare sales. Just today, AirTran Airways and Southwest launched new airfare sales which has already been matched by American Airlines (Tuesday, Wednesday & Saturday travel).

Air travelers are going to be in for a wild ride over the next few months as we head into some of the heaviest airline ticket purchasing activity this spring - with a fertile airfare “increase environment” and the prospects of possible legacy airline mergers looming - both corporate and leisure travelers are going to feel the sting of higher prices and should be actively shopping earlier than ever to get a decent deal.

This will be the last update related to this increase unless an unlikely late rollback occurs.