Airline stock guru’s are “modeling in” merger price bumps into their stock price forecasts for investors — not strangely enough “BUY” seems to be the widespread theme from these analysts. Oh! of course there is the standard disclaimer about sky-rocketing fuel and the economy, but there appears to be a giddiness that spells trouble for those of us caught in the path of a merger — in a city where there was “once” compeitition. Is what “is” good for investors & airline executives retirement plans — good for you?

Many of you know how I feel on this very complex subject (just take a peek at my musings) — but I felt it was time to step back off my “finding a cheap airline ticket” pulpit and list out the pros and cons from dozens of very bright analysts and journalists and let you make the decision …

Pros

• lower cost airlines will come in and gobble up merger overlap (dropping prices in theory)
• more route choices for merged frequent flier redemption
• those in non-merger cities little or no change
• “streamlined” operations pump more $ into the flying experience
• airline ticket prices rising is “over-hyped”
• investors cash in
• “good ole” American market forces will sort things out in a Darwinian fashion

Cons

• Poor history of successful mergers
• Higher airline ticket prices
• Loss of jobs
• Merging of frequent flier and credit card program becomes a disaster
• “Short Term” reservation system “merger” glitches
• Already poor service gets worse tracking airline employee morale
• Planes even more packed than they already are
• Less choice of flight times, dates, destinations

As we approach the Super Bowl, I’ll quote the famous commercial that brought us instant replay on questionable on field decisions “You make the call …” and hopefully the anti-trust folks will make the correct one …