FareCompare.com » RickSeaney.com » The Airline Industry’s “Deal or No Deal”: Inside the Delta-Northwest Merger

February 18, 2008

The Airline Industry’s “Deal or No Deal”: Inside the Delta-Northwest Merger

Filed under: Airlines, Delta, Northwest — Rick Seaney @ 1:30 pm

We seem to be hurtling toward a Delta-Northwest merger. What’s the rush? Here’s the inside story.

Some of Delta’s biggest shareholders just want it done: Delta creditors had earlier refused an offer to merge with US Airways, and the stock price dropped by a third. Now, says an airline industry analyst, the feeling is it’s time to make a deal, because unlike that popular TV show, there’s not going to be a last minute appearance by “The Banker” with a better offer.

Meanwhile, Northwest has problems because of its aging fleet. It needs to upgrade, but doesn’t have the cash. Merging can fix that.

But more than a few passengers are asking, “What’s your hurry?” Let me explain.

There is a school-of-thought that says, if the merger process begins sooner rather than later, the easier it will go (or so thinks Wall St.). In other words, there is concern during this election year, that a change in administration could create glitches for any merger (or as another industry observer put it, “The devil they know in this case is better”).

And clearly the airlines involved have some concerns about Democrats; Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, a member of the Senate commerce panel, is known to be concerned that mergers can have a negative impact on small towns dependent on the one of the merging carriers for their air service.

But, according to my airline industry analyst, if all goes well, a merger of the 2-carriers in question could pass the government approval process in say, 6-months.

Of course it’s rare that a merger goes 100% smoothly; as I wrote in my column for ABCNews.com, the real problems are likely to be in the implementation of the merger, when all the details must be tidied up and that encompasses “a variety of business systems including reservations, call centers, baggage and airport operations. Travelers are more likely to experience heartburn in these areas.”

What are travelers saying? According to the folks at Travel Mole, it’ll mean “higher prices and worse service.” Another commenter said (of mergers in general) that they just make it more expensive for all airline passengers. Still another suggested maybe prices should rise: “I have been in the airline industry since 1980 and fares are lower today…than they were back in the 80’s.” A Denver traveler added, “It will be interesting to watch this develop.”

Indeed it will. And to see how quickly other airlines follow suit.

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