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July 24, 2008

Americans Still Plan to Travel Abroad

Filed under: Destinations, Europe — Rick Seaney @ 4:27 pm
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The credit card company Visa has just completed a survey that shows Americans who like to travel — are still going to travel.

Or they plan to, at any rate.

The survey, done in May, found that 2/3’s of Americans who had traveled outside in the U.S. in the past 3 years were as eager — or even more eager, to do it again. And within the next year.

The weak dollar, and rising airfares just doesn’t seem to matter to them. Though some said they might not travel as far as they used to. Which makes sense when you consider the most popular destinations listed by those surveyed were Canada and Mexico.

The next most popular destinations? Coming right up, so keep reading…

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“No-Surprise-Here” Dept. — Southwest Posts a Profit

Filed under: Southwest — Rick Seaney @ 2:33 pm
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Unlike everyone else so far, Southwest posted an increase in its 2nd Quarter 2008 — an increase of 15% net profit.

But even Southwest is feeling a bit of a pinch; according to Southwest CEO Gary Kelly, “We must continue to make the necessary adjustments to adapt to higher jet fuel prices and restore our profit margins.”

Or, as Kelly told me in the one-on-one interview I had with him last week, Southwest may have to raise some fares — though he quickly added, Southwest will remain true to its frugal ways — which includes, cheaper airfare.

Alaska Airlines: Changes to Frequent Flier Program (and not for the better)

Filed under: Frequent Flyer — Rick Seaney @ 1:13 pm
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The Alaska Air Group (which includes Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air) is making some changes to its frequent flier program. The Associated Press has the story.

Biggest change: a new $25 fee to use miles on partner airlines.

They’re also raising the number of miles to redeem a “Coach Saver” ticket from 20,000 to 25,000 as well as other changes.

I’ve been writing about changes to frequent flier miles programs with…well, increasing frequency. And in my recent one-on-one interview with Southwest CEO Gary Kelly, there’s some discussion as to whether these programs will survive in any form.

VIDEO: FAA Looks to YouTube for New Controllers

Filed under: Travel Safety, TV News — Rick Seaney @ 10:27 am
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Many of the nation’s air traffic controllers are hitting retirement age, so the FAA is recruiting in…YouTube? MySpace? Craig’s List?

Yes, according to a new CNN report, the FAA’s Robert Sturgell is targeting a new generation of recruits — including recent high school grads — and that’s where they have to advertise:

“We trying to connect with them, where they are.” — Robert Sturgell, FAA

Apparently this is making some current controllers a little nervous, this targeting of teens. Can they handle the “life and death moments”? Well, of course they won’t be handling anything without extensive training.

Any air traffic controllers out there reading this? I’d love your take.

July 23, 2008

BTS Stats Say, Airline Ticket Costs Aren’t So Bad. But… (Updated)

Filed under: Airfares, Airfare Increases — Rick Seaney @ 7:32 pm
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As many of us can attest, the cost of airfare is up — up 4.4% for the first quarter of this year (2008) compared to the same time period last year (2007) according the BTS press release.

But not so fast …

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) also notes, these Q1 2008 fares are actually cheaper than the first quarter of 2001 – 4.6% cheaper (and remember, this is before the pricing chaos in the wake of 9/11).

The release has some unusual background info:

Average fares are based on domestic itinerary fares, round-trip or one-way for which no return is purchased. Fares include taxes and fees. Averages do not include frequent-flyer or “zero fares” or a few abnormally high reported fares. Average fares in this release may not be comparable to BTS fare press releases before the second quarter of 2007 which did not exclude frequent flyer fares or abnormally high fares. Bulk fares continue to be excluded as in earlier releases.

Let me translate for you — or at least, attempt to give you my take:

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Top 5 List: Most Expensive & Cheapest Airports

Filed under: Airport, List — Rick Seaney @ 12:38 pm
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UPDATE: We are trying to determine if these airfare statistics involve tickets that have been purchased, or actually used — we will update as soon as possible.

According to the latest figures from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), some airports have higher fares than others. And here’s what we know, based on the stats for the first quarter of this year:

Cincinnati has the HIGHEST average domestic airfares.

Atlantic City had the LOWEST average domestic airfares.

Alright, now which airports saw the biggest increases in their average domestic airfares, when comparing the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008?

Boston had the biggest increase; Atlantic City had the biggest decrease.

For the “top 5 airports” in all four of these categories, please — keep reading.

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ABCNews.com Column: One-on-One with Southwest CEO Gary Kelly

Filed under: Southwest, ABC News — Rick Seaney @ 8:54 am
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I had a terrific time last week, conducting a one-on-one interview with Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly, and here’s some of the stuff I learned:

  • Southwest is not the only airline that hedges fuel
  • Loyalty programs may be on their way out
  • Airline survival may depend on how well a carrier can mimic Southwest
  • Customer satisfaction (at Southwest) means telling customers “the truth”

Kelly also talked about the emerging economic dominance of China — and what a force they will be to contend with. He’s not exactly sure what that dominance will mean though — but he did remind me about that old U.S. business slogan: “As GM goes, so goes the nation…” Well, we all know how GM is doing these days.

You can read about all this and lots more in my latest ABCNews.com column (for example, did you know in the early days of Southwest, the carrier lured new customers with Chivas Regal giveaways?)

Check it out; I think you’ll enjoy it.

Emergency Landing, Take 3 — Congressmen on a Plane

Filed under: Travel Safety, Continental — Rick Seaney @ 8:01 am
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I think this is a record for me…writing about 3 emergency landings in as many days.

The first and second emergency landings involved Northwest flights; this latest one featured a Continental jet carrying (among others) 7 Texas congressmen — including former presidential candidate Ron Paul.

The problem: the cabin pressure rather inexplicably dropped — and the flight, which was heading from Houston to D.C. was safely diverted to New Orleans. Textbook operation: no one was hurt, all were calm.

Fascinating tidbit: according to reports, the congressmen were trying to get to Washington in time for a vote on an aviation safety bill. It’s not clear if they made it.

July 22, 2008

Survival of the Fittest?

Filed under: Airlines, US Airways, Fuel Watch — Rick Seaney @ 4:33 pm
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I saw some truly incredible comments on this British aviation site in a piece on U.S. airline woes.

Yes, there’s plenty to be “woeful” about — but what do you think about this suggestion from Ray Neidl, a Calyon Securities airline analyst? Here’s what he said:

“The best thing that could happen to the industry is to have one or two of the major airlines fail.” — Ray Neidl, airline analyst

He went on to say, that failure would result in the liquidation of the busted airline’s seat inventory, and that would enable the “survivors” to raise ticket prices to “economic levels”.

My first thought? What a crock.

My second thought? Keep reading…

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Qantas Exec Sees GLOBAL Airline Consolidation

Filed under: Mergers — Rick Seaney @ 12:46 pm
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Some interesting thoughts from Geoff Dixon, the boss at Australia’s Qantas Airways.

He said all the usual things, that higher fuel prices would mean big changes in the airline industry — but what really caught my eye was his take on talks between the U.S. and the European Union that could end American rules barring foreign control of U.S. airlines.

Dixon suggested that ultimately, it could “produce a few very large and extremely efficient global airlines.” He also added that he doesn’t believe any airline can avoid consolidation.

What do you think? Is this where we’re headed?

Did You Know? Which Airlines ‘Dominate’ the Market?

Filed under: Airlines, Did You Know — Rick Seaney @ 12:30 pm
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There are several ways to determine which domestic airline ihas the strongest hold on the market. You can look at revenue, fleet size, number of passengers, number of routes, etc. You can also look at the total number of passenger miles flown.

The BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics) has released the number of passenger miles flown on the major domestic airlines for the past year (May, 2007 - April, 2008). They use these statistics to determine what percentage of the market each airline has a hold over.

So, which airlines are flying the most passengers the most miles? Keep reading to find out…

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Buy an Airline Ticket on Northwest — and Take the Bus??

Filed under: Northwest — Rick Seaney @ 11:41 am
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Not sure I’d be mentioning this latest emergency landing by an Northwest — except, it IS the second time it’s happened this week — and the second time this week that Northwest passengers found themselves finishing up their flights, on a bus.

The latest adventure happened yesterday when NWA’s flight 126, heading from Minneapolis to Chicago — had a pressurization problem, and landed in Madison, Wisconsin.

No problem — lovely city — and the 115 passengers and crew were in fine shape.

But then they got on a bus, and took off for Chicago. Estimated drive time, 2-and a half hours (thanks, Mapquest). For awhile, Northwest’s slogan was, “Now You’re Flying Smart”. Well — when they let you fly.

United Airlines Reports Q2 Loss, Sites Rising Fuel Costs

Filed under: United — Rick Seaney @ 11:39 am
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United Airlines reported their Q2 results today, and not surprisingly, the carrier is reporting a loss. Even less surprisingly, the carrier is siting rising fuel costs as the major cause of that loss. Excluding accounting charges, UAL experienced a Q2 net loss of $151 Million. The airline foresees continuing fuel issues into Q3 and Q4, expecting a $3.5 Billion increase on fuel expenditures in 2008 as compared to 2007.

So, how does United plan to offset these fuel costs? They’re reducing capacity and significantly reducing their fleet (retiring their 737s from action). United Airlines also believes their partnership with Continental will shape the way major airlines operate in the future, and help them to turn a profit. The plan is for this partnership to go well beyond a codeshare agreement. United Airlines and Continental Airlines hope to align their frequent flier programs, combine their buying power, and increase opportunities for shared revenue. United Airlines also plans to seek out similar partnerships in Latin America.

Unfortunately, United Airlines has also increased their foreseen job cuts from 1,500 to 7,000 by the end of 2009.

Despite Q2 losses and continuing fuel cost issues, UAL sees itself as being in a “solid cash position” with the ability to achieve profitability in the current environment.

We’ll let you know if that pans out as Q3 gets underway.

July 21, 2008

Fun Lists: Travelers’ Top 10 U.S and World Cities

Filed under: Favorites, Tips and Tricks — Rick Seaney @ 4:56 pm
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Did your favorite cities make “The List”? In this case, we’re talking about Travel + Leisure Magazine’s annual readers’ poll of favorites.

A couple of weeks ago, I told you what their top airlines were. Now, let’s start some arguments with the Travel + Leisure “top cities”.

First, their top 10 best cities in the world:

1. Bangkok

2. Buenos Aires

3. Cape Town, South Africa

4. Sydney, Australia

5. Florence, Italy

6. Cuzco, Peru (not on the list last year)

7. Rome

8. New York

9. Istanbul, Turkey

10. San Francisco

Keep reading, for the top 10 cities in the U.S. and Canada.

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United Adds $80rt Fuel Surcharge on Flights Departing Next Year

Filed under: Fuel Surcharges, United — Rick Seaney @ 3:17 pm
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This afternoon at 12:30pm EDT United Airlines filed a new rule change for thousands of domestic airfare which tacks on $80 roundtrip to domesticairline tickets for departure on/after January 10th of next year.

I guess they don’t want anyone “hedging” by buying their airline tickets for next year early (assuming prices are going to continue to sky-rocket and locking in). Normally airlines manage their cheapeast domestic prices about 4 months before departure and charge mid-tier (much more expensive prices if you buy “too” early”).

In this case United looks like it is trying to catchthose who assume all airline tickets are going to be $800rt by the end of the year (see all the comments from US Airways CEO in this article)…

“Airlines will start collecting $650 to $700 per passenger for a ticket. Planes will fly primarily to big cities, and not a lot of small communities. There will be many fewer flights. Air travel will be a throwback to the era before deregulation. Flying will be a luxury.” - US Airways CEO Doug Parker, on what travelers can expect if oil prices don’t go lower.

Hard to say if other airlines will match this unusual fuel surcharge strategy at this point … I watch this stuff every day and don’t recall seeing this type of departure date fuel surcharge in past history.

Midwest Airlines Eliminates Routes, Expands Codeshare Agreements

Filed under: Midwest — Rick Seaney @ 12:04 pm
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Midwest Airlines has announced its new flight schedule to commence on September 8th, 2008. The new schedule is seen as a result of the carrier’s attempts to restructure in the face of rising fuel costs.

The announcement includes several changes to the Midwest Airlines’ route system, codeshare agreements, seasonal travel, and more.

Keep reading for a brief overview of how these changes from Midwest Airlines could affect your travel plans for this fall and beyond…

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Northwest Jet Surprises Dayton Air Show (and Ends with Surprise Bus Trip)

Filed under: Travel Safety, News, Northwest — Rick Seaney @ 9:34 am
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A Northwest plane had to make an emergency landing and disrupt a Dayton, Ohio air show Sunday because of a computer failure on one of its engines.

There were no injuries among the nearly 200 passengers aboard to flight, which was traveling from Tampa to Detroit.

No injuries, but probably a lot of frustration — since the passengers then traveled to Detroit — by bus!

According to Mapquest, that’s about a 3-and-a-half-hour trip — which is about an hour longer than the entire flight from Tampa to Detroit.

July 18, 2008

Checked Bag Fees - The Bright Side, Maybe

Filed under: Airline Fees, Bags — Rick Seaney @ 3:01 am
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Airline Fees — both new and increases to old — for months have been the talk of the blogosphere and mainstream press.

I have to admit I’m skeptical about all these fees and their potential long term effect on the purchasing habits and consumption of air travel — especially considering the dubious quality of the core airline product — getting people from A to B (with bags).

That said I was reviewing the transcript of today’s Continental Airlines investor call and ran across this quote from the Continental CEO:

The second bag fee has been very effective. In the domestic market we’re seeing about a 60% reduction for second bags checked by affected customers and for Latin it’s about a 35% reduction without any meaningful problems at the TSA checkpoint or onboard with carry ons. This is very good for us as we save the weight onboard our aircraft as well as the handling and mishandling bag costs” — Larry Kellner

Whoa!

I would never have expected 35-60% LESS second checked bags (due to the new fee) — baggage handlers must be wondering what to do with all the free time.

It never crossed my mind that the fee could be thought of as a “dis-incentive” campaign for pack rats. Maybe we needed a sanity check on how much we “over”-pack and the fee is a “good” thing.

One might argue, however, that all the contents of those unchecked second bags are being carried on — which certainly doesn’t bode well for those airlines who have both a 1st and 2nd checked bag fee (not Continental — yet).

Sounds like those airlines (American, Northwest, United and US Airways) — may soon be seeing some “meaningful” problems at TSA and onboard…

Come See the Big Plane - Airbus A380 Comes to NY, LA and San Fran

Filed under: Airplanes — Rick Seaney @ 2:29 am
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Emirates Airline, as you know, will be first to fly the huge (yes, Godzilla-like) A380 to the U.S.

The enormous aircraft will arrive at JFK from Dubai on August 1.

Then on August 4, “invited guests” in San Francisco can take a “familiarization” flight — as will other “invited guests” in Los Angeles on August 5.

Not an “invited guest”? Well, just head on down to the airport if you simply want to see a great big bird.

Did You Know? according to a report in Dubai’s Khaleej Times, the Airbus A380 gets “better fuel economy per passenger mile than most hybrid passenger cars”.

July 17, 2008

Continental Celebrates Q2 Earnings by Dropping Cheapest Domestic Prices

Filed under: Airfares, Airlines, Continental — Rick Seaney @ 3:53 pm
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Continental only lost $3 million in Q2 (after you toss out those one-time charges). To celebrate this morning at 10:00am they dropped many domestic routes by $70 roundtrip (averages out to about $25 when you crunch the data on all 1,200 city pairs between the top 50 cities — unfortunately the hub cities Newark, Houston, Cleveland didn’t get the break) — but it was a break nonetheless (maybe they new oil would dip below $130 a barrel today…)

They even dropped on Southwest overlap routes …

Notice the premium that is being charged for departures after late October: this means that most of the cheapest airfares on Continental have a rule indicating the travel period ends at Halloween. (Tip: be careful on holiday purchases — if the price seems too high, it might be worth it to wait — but you could be risking 10 more hikes we are likely to see this year.)

Interesting: Delta Reports Second-Quarter Profit — Without First Bag Fee

Filed under: Airline Fees, Delta — Rick Seaney @ 3:46 pm
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Thought this was noteworthy: Delta, one of only 2 legacy carriers that are holding out against that “first checked-bag fee”, actually made a small profit this quarter (if you exclude so-called one-time items).

They must be doing something right.

Is it possible that passengers are rewarding Delta for not busting them on bag fees (or maybe it’s the carrier’s bigger international mix)?

The other “first checked-bag fee” hold-out, Continental, wasn’t quite as fortunate this second-quarter, but the loss that carrier reported was still a relatively small $3 million.

With the current fuel costs, that is pretty respectable. So do we really need the checked bag fees?

American Airlines in Final Testing Phase of Anti-Missile System

Filed under: Travel Safety, American — Rick Seaney @ 3:05 pm
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Late last week, American Airlines began flying two of its 767’s with JETEYE, an infrared missile defense system. It’ll continue these tests on NY to LA flights into 2009 (and note, these are not “live” tests — there will be no “live firing” of the system).

The whole point of this system? To respond to terrorist threats. Of particular concern — as noted by TV station WBZ — are terrorists firing shoulder launched-missile just outside airport property.

When I first wrote about this system, I got a lot of comments like this:

“Sounds like a boondoggle to me.” — RickSeaney.com poster

And, American spokesman Tim Wagner told us, the airline is on record as being against installing these systems (they think intelligence-gathering is a better way to combat terrorism); but, American agreed to the testing because “we want to know how the system works.”

The also want to learn what this system, because of its weight and drag, could cost them in terms of fuel usage.

Pilots vs. US Airways: How Much Fuel Should Go on the Planes?

Filed under: Pilots, US Airways — Rick Seaney @ 10:13 am
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US Airways pilots took out an ad in the Philadelphia Inquirer that pretty much says it all from their point of view:

“US Airways management has begun pressuring your Captain to reduce fuel levels for your flight to save money.” — advertisement

8 senior pilots with US Airways have filed a complaint with the FAA saying the carrier is “making them fly with less fuel than they feel is safe”.

The FAA requires that pilots carry 45 minutes worth of “extra” fuel above what’s required for a normal flight (in case of delays or weather problems) but these 8 pilots asked for another 10 minutes or so, and then claimed their airline retaliated against them by forcing them to take “fuel conservation training.”

The pilots say, that’s intimidation. Keep reading.

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City Flight Capacity Cut Report - See Where Your Hometown Stacks Up

Filed under: Airlines, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 1:39 am
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Tonight I decided to massage some historical flight schedules to see how much of the announced capacity cuts have kicked in.

I basically took the flight schedules as they existed the 1st of July 2007 comparing them to the flight schedules as they existed on 1st July 2008 (couple of weeks ago).

For the comparison I checked all flights on the first Monday in December of the respective year (most of the 2008 cuts - if they have made it into the schedules yet — will be in place by December 2008)

Remember that we will continue to get schedule changes from airlines in the coming weeks, hopefully most of the canceled flights will be removed quickly so you don’t end up with a booked ticket on flight that gets canceled by cuts (see my recent post on what to do in this situation).

It is a big table so take a look and see where your favorite cities stack up

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American Airlines Airbus Aircraft Cuts

Filed under: Airlines, American — Rick Seaney @ 12:06 am
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An AP story today noted American is cutting its Airbus fleet by the end of next year:

AMR announced Wednesday that it would speed up the retirement of its 34 Airbus A300 aircraft by the end of next year, three years ahead of schedule. It ended the quarter with more than $5 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments.

While I was doing the capacity cut report I figured some might like to see the routes those Airbus aircraft are current servicing:

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