They say bad news comes in 3’s and today, I’ve seen 3 things that have pushed me over the edge I was hanging on. That “edge” was whether or not we had reached the “tipping point” on airfare increases vs. travel demand — the tipping point being when passengers start saying, “That’s it, I’m staying home!” Ill be honest: even after watching an unprecedented 39 attempted airfare hikes since January 2007, I was not ready to concede that the tipping point had arrived — until today (unlike my friend Joe Brancatelli who’d been urging me to call it a month ago — Joe, as usual, you were right). So what pushed me over? Let’s just say, the landscape of the airline industry has shifted — not unlike the shifting earthquakes do! Keep reading.

So what pushed me over the edge? Take a look:

1) American’s sweeping announcements a few weeks ago, about their deep route cuts –and then, the way they “crossed the line” with the first bag check-in fees

2) United’s announcement today of deep cuts in routes and labor

3) Reports of Spirit cutbacks

4) Airlines filing with the DOT for the equivalent of a “hold” on starting new international routes (thanks, Plane Buzz)

5) Continental international route revenue softening for 2 straight months

6) No new fare increases for 2 weeks

7) Virgin Atlantic putting additional fuel surcharges on premium class airfares, but not on coach

So what does this tell me about the changing landscape? What will it look like? Kind of like the dark side of the moon. In other words, hard to say, because there’s not much history to review — history of record fuel prices and a stumbling U.S. economy and upside down currency conversion.

What we have now is, survival mode kicking in. The last “survival mode” began immediately after 9/11, and we weren’t sure but here is my best estimate at $130+ barrel oil:

• Airline tickets up 20-30% except on those routes that overlap with low cost airlines which will likely go up at less than half that rate

• Less choice on flights and routes, some cities will lose all of their service others will lose daily service — ironically may lessen air traffic control woes

• Cheaper airline tickets harder to find, but can be found if travelers prove to change their buying habits along with being more flexible on travel dates and destinations

• New non-stop international routes on hold for the time being

• Look for announcements on cuts from Continental and Northwest (as yet to announce meaning ful cuts)

• Currently profitable Southwest, Allegiant, WestJetsit in the cat bird seat (Southwest with huge fuel hedges for the time being) –but they too have to be careful and pick and chose where to head next

Yes, it is bad and could possibly get worse at $200/barrel oil, but it is survivable …