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The other day someone sent me a link to a story on Wired.com (not one of my usual travel haunts) with air travel buying tips that don’t quite “jive” with mine. I looked over the tips provided based on the observations from Farecast (now a Microsoft Company — I know them well as I spent many an hour in Seattle teaching them the ins and outs of airfare). The main premise of the article is that “Shopping Early” for airline tickets doesn’t yield any results. This statement and a few other tidbits in the article — well, I don’t quite agree — so lets break it down … |
The Wired.com author states:
“The database knows when airline prices are going to change and has uncovered a host of other secrets about air travel”
Let’s be clear here - not even the airlines “know” what they are going to do tomorrow or later today for that matter - The author obviously means “educated guesses” (a far cry from “knowing”) - I am going to go out on a very long limb and make a couple of “educated guesses” of my own:
- Airline ticket prices are going to go up in mass for the rest of the year (seeing that we have already had 21 airfare hike attempts this year)
- If you buy your ticket 14 days before departure or less you are likely to pay 2-4 times more (that’s when airlines pricing structure moves from leisure traveler rates to business traveler rates)
- If you are savvy business traveler and buy your tickets early and don’t stay a few nights at your destination your ticket price is likely to be 2-4 times higher (legacy airlines are adding Saturday night stays to their leisure airfares)
“Common Wisdom is Wrong” Shopping Early Won’t Get You Cheaper Airline Tickets — “except when it (common wisdom) is right …”
Sounds like a statement from a corporate attorney …
Procrastinators - as most of us are - should be rejoicing at this nugget - But Hold On A Minute.
I can’t disagree more: shopping early doesn’t necessarily mean buying early. I always recommend starting to shop 4 months before departure.
Why 4 months?
I have noted in many articles shopping too early is a bad idea and 4 months before departure — for domestic travel — is a good starting point:
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Airlines start activity managing seat prices
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Southwest Airlines booking window is open forcing prices down on competitors
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Likelihood of catching one of the 3 or 4 big sales of the year (less this year)
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If you follow the crowd and procrastinate (as recommended in this story) you will fall right into the hands of the airlines. They know everything about your shopping and buying habits, when you want to shop, where you want to go & the days and times you like to travel. They use this information to charge you accordingly — follow the crowd and you’ll pay more.
Wrapping Up
The rest of the tips are similar to those that I have noted over the past year (good price — snap it up — don’t wait, price to high today, weigh the risk/reward of waiting, be flexible on location and dates).
Tips are just that — educated nuggets of information based on years of experience, massive databases of current and historical airfare with algorithms to slice and dice it and insider knowledge on how airlines and their reservation and revenue management systems work.
I would second your analysis with an addition.
At about 4 months (if I have that much notice), I can buy a ticket on the airline site (and get the booking bonus if any) then register it with .
If the ticket price goes down, I can get a voucher for the difference (I fly United which will do that.
If the ticket price goes up, I have gotten the best deal.
Comment by Gregg Marshall — July 15, 2008 @ 12:51 pm
It is possible that you can get a few dollars off if you wait, but I am personally glad that I bought my tickets through the end of the year before the airlines added on that first-checked-bag fee. That alone will save me some money…
Comment by Rebecca — July 15, 2008 @ 3:19 pm
I had planned to go from San Diego to Maui in November so I started shopping within the 330 days of my departure date. I purchased my tickets on Hawaiian Airlines in January for $417 roundtrip. If I were to purchase those tickets today on Hawaiian Air, it would cost $1242 per ticket. I agree Rick, procrastinating can be expensive; if I had waited, Thanksgiving in Maui would have been just a dream
Comment by Darryl A — July 16, 2008 @ 11:20 pm
As a travel agent, I often have several clients looking for flights during school vacation weeks. I start to monitor these weeks as soon as they open for sale (about 10 to 11 months in advance). After a few months, I can tell what range is a good price and prep the client that we will need to jump when it hits the low end.
Sometimes the first shot out from the airlines is really low for a limited # of seats. I think it’s so they can gauge how many bites they get. This doesn’t last long, then they hike it as high as possible, then play it for months to see what happens, with a teaser sale thrown in here and there. This is what they are doing with NY to FL airfares for winter 2009. They are very high. Anything under $400 should be grabbed for winter travel, in my opinion. I had to pay $400 each for my own family.
Comment by Mary — July 17, 2008 @ 1:19 am
I started planning and shopping for a 3 week trip to Italy this October back in March. By so doing, I was able to clearly see competitive bids and arrange my departure and return dates and cities to suit my schedule. Had I waited, I might have seen some “last minute” deals priced a little lower but I would have had to sacrifice the flexibility I desire. With increasing fuel surcharges and the weaker than ever dollar, the possibility that I could have saved money by waiting seems very unlikely.
In my case, procrastinating would have saved nothing.
Comment by Jeff — July 17, 2008 @ 9:15 am
I just lost out buying my Hawaiian Air tix too early, not only because I later found I needed to change the return ticket (costing extra $$$), but the round-trip for both of us dropped almost $350!!! That’s a lot of clams. I’m kicking myself, but ultimately, it’s a crap shoot. (Disclaimer: Hawaiian Air would’ve credited me the difference if I hadn’t changed the original itinerary - they can only credit you based on the original reservation, which no longer exists.)
Comment by Martrese — July 17, 2008 @ 9:50 am
We also had an experience of buying a $350 trip to Nashville on July 15 for August travel and now finding fares of $260 online. The price guarantee from Orbitz only works if someone books the EXACT SAME FLIGHT, and the usual charges apply if you want to change to the lower priced flights. Makes me feel ripped off.
Comment by Penny — July 17, 2008 @ 5:12 pm
Zoom Airlines recently began direct flights from San Diego to London. On June 25, I bought 5 premium class tickets (one of these for an infant). The tickets are for the Christmas timeframe and just today they started advertising free children’s fares. Of course this would be on purchases from today forward. Any possibility of being able to get in on this bargain after the fact?
Comment by Donna — July 17, 2008 @ 6:09 pm
We travel quite a bit for vacations - 3 big trips this year alone. I start shopping at least 6 months ahead of my travel time and I check every single travel and airline site I can find. I especially like farecompare and farecast - great for keeping tabs on what’s going on. Even after I purchase my flights, I keep checking just to make sure I made the right decision (so far so good). I find that buying 60 - 90 days out seems to yield the best deals. I purchased 3 tickets from LA to Puerto Vallarta in January for a trip in March (spring break no less) for $900. A couple weeks later they were $1200. Then in May, I purchased 2 tickets from LA to Cabo in May for a July trip for $880 and again, just weeks later the fares jumped about $200 - $400. We also scored on buying before the new bag charges. My advice is to check prices daily and be ready to buy.
Comment by Helen — July 17, 2008 @ 11:27 pm
I waited to book flights back to the US from Ireland, where we are located now, for a wedding this October. Catching a ‘we’ll pay the fuel’ promo on Aer lingus saved us close to $300 for our return flight back to Ireland. Then I just watched the flights for our departure, and boom one day out of the blue they went down 90 euro’s. It isn’t always better to book separately, but because our plans changed, now I get to fly into LA see family, then bounce up to SF for the wedding, and had I booked long ago, I would have paid over 2000$ US. You just have to keep an eye on your target.
Comment by Melissa — July 18, 2008 @ 5:09 am
CAN ANYONE HELP ?? I AM LOOKING FOR ONE RT. TICKET INC. TAXES , FROM JFK TO BANGKOK , FOR EARLY JAN. 2009 AND TO RETURN EARLY FEB.2009, FOR UNDER $1,000 INC. ALL TAXES PLEASE…. SO FAR THE CHEAPEST IS #1,155- N.G. THANKS ALL VERY MUCH…….
Comment by CHARLIE — July 20, 2008 @ 5:53 am
Help, I have been tracking flights for the past 12 months from Manchester, UK to Orlando flying 29th October returning 19th November. I have seen these flights drop a few times but also rise, should I buy now or hold my nerve and hope for another drop in the 60 - 90 period before I go. Ideally I hope virgin will have another sale and these dates will be included so we can travel direct with seatback tv’s. We have never flown in-direct before so we are a bit nervous about doing this. Any advice will be gratefully received. Thanks
Comment by Lisa — July 21, 2008 @ 7:53 pm
Hi Mr Rick:
I have bought tickets to MCO, and the prices dropped about $100 in a week! Any advice? Thanks.
Comment by Sammie — July 21, 2008 @ 11:30 pm
How do airlines justify charging passengers who leave from hubs for the costs of the commuter flights that bring other passengers to the same plane for a lower fare than getting on at the hub??????????
Shouldnt the commuters pay their own way?
Shouldnt commuters pay for their own flights?
Why should hub boarders subsidize the commuters?????
Check out the fares from CVG vs DAY (about 50 miles apart) You an fly from DAY to CVG to almost anywhere and DELTA will charge you about half of what it charges to board @ CVG!!!!!
CVG..the MOST EXPENSIVE airport in the continental USA!!! HELD HOSTAGE BY DELTA!
Comment by Armby July 24, 2008 @ 8:49 am
Comment by Armby — July 24, 2008 @ 8:54 am