 |
This year, expectations for holiday travel are down — mainly due to higher airline ticket prices and the economy. Still — I think a lot of us will go home for the holidays — regardless of the price. But will we be able to find a seat? We all know the airlines are trying to wait out the high fuel prices by drastically cutting back flights — and that means, fewer seats. A lot fewer. Here’s what I did: I pulled some data from our historical flight schedules (of the top airlines) and I discovered that over the busy Christmas/New Year’s/Holiday travel season — the last 2 weeks of the year –we will have a few million fewer available seats. If you even think you may want to travel during the winter holidays — keep reading. |
If you absolutely must (or absolutely want) to fly during the holidays, don’t dawdle — you may not get a seat — in fact, you may not be able to purchase even an expensive seat. See for yourself, and then start making plans (comparison of availabe seats on Friday departures before Xmas week).
Domestic U.S. Historical Seat Counts (Friday before Xmas Week)
|
Airline |
Available Seats 22-Dec-2006 |
Available Seats 21-Dec-2007 |
Available Seats 19-Dec-2008 |
% Increase / Decrease 2008 vs. 2006 |
Seat Difference 2008 vs. 2006 |
| Midwest |
21,185 |
25,004 |
13,952 |
-34% |
(7,233) |
| United |
309,653 |
290,322 |
250,043 |
-19% |
(59,610) |
| American |
344,728 |
329,617 |
298,754 |
-13% |
(45,974) |
| US Airways |
323,799 |
309,033 |
286,157 |
-12% |
(37,642) |
| Continental |
209,943 |
201,733 |
186,558 |
-11% |
(23,385) |
| Northwest |
226,434 |
215,010 |
207,504 |
-8% |
(18,930) |
| Frontier |
38,288 |
39,352 |
36,264 |
-5% |
(2,024) |
| Hawaiian |
24,912 |
23,805 |
23,664 |
-5% |
(1,248) |
| Delta |
349,462 |
375,501 |
333,773 |
-4% |
(15,689) |
| AirTran |
87,889 |
93,178 |
89,930 |
2% |
2,041 |
| JetBlue |
73,640 |
76,350 |
75,600 |
3% |
1,960 |
| Spirit |
15,984 |
18,864 |
16,560 |
4% |
576 |
| Alaska |
80,746 |
85,851 |
83,813 |
4% |
3,067 |
| Southwest |
441,984 |
467,586 |
459,985 |
4% |
18,001 |
| Allegiant |
9,600 |
17,700 |
12,900 |
34% |
3,300 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,558,247 |
2,568,906 |
2,375,457 |
-7% |
(182,790) |
That is pretty far ahead. On the analyst calls for Q2 results, the airlines didn’t seem certain about load factors in Q3 let alone in Q4. If they see flights filling up around xmas, all the airlines have grounded planes they could use to add more flights. Don’t you think?
Comment by mwarden — August 4, 2008 @ 1:17 pm
Not all flight cutbacks for 2008 have hit the schedules yet, so these numbers could get worse. While it is possible that they could add some capacity back in (especially if oil takes a big drop below $100 quickly), but the possibility seems remote, but I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
Comment by Rick Seaney — August 4, 2008 @ 1:34 pm
I’ve noticed a marked increase in air fare prices even in the last year or so..obviously this only counts as ‘anecdotal’ evidence, but to fly down to Florida (from NYC) last year cost us $248 each; for the same time this year, it’s risen to $350+. It’ll be interesting to see if the prices come down in line with the drop in oil prices. I keep reading about people opting to have a ’stay-cation’ (a word I hate, btw) but I think during the holiday the demand really isn’t going to diminish too much.
Comment by Chris Ballard — August 7, 2008 @ 10:31 am
What is more important….the price of tickets or a seat on a plane, when you want it, to where you want to go. Or,
what is more inconvenient, a few extra dollars that the airlines are entitled to as their costs have risen, or no seat. What advantage does cheap airfares serve if we can’t fly…lets just pay and get the service.
Comment by Phil Lohrey — August 7, 2008 @ 11:31 pm
After purchasing tickets at the end of June for my parents to the UK, 3 mos. in advance (to beat rising gas prices), I started pondering about doing the same for my own Christmas flights. I bought our tix in mid-July, & now I am so glad that I did so after hearing these reports this week. They were only about $40 higher than 2 yrs. ago, but only after I had to forego the direct flights, which were priced more than 3X higher than 2 yrs. ago! (Xmas 2006 direct flight=$240, 2008 direct=$760!!!)
Sadly, it’s starting to look like it will soon be cheaper for us to fly off-season to England, instead of to my in-laws in Philly for the holidays!
Cheers!
Jean
Comment by Jean — August 8, 2008 @ 1:00 am