October 31, 2008
Our friends at SkyTalk and AirlineBiz note today that J.P. Morgan is “throwing water” on an announcement we made that leisure travelers have gotten a break this week from sky high ticket prices around the holidays.
Their research note entitled “Holiday Prices Move Higher” and cites:
- AirTran raised its 7 day advance purchase fares by $5-$15 one-way … widely matched by competitors — equating leisure travelers who had been getting quotes in the $400-$600 roundtrip range for holiday travel in the past month; who are now getting quotes for $200-$400 roundtrip for those same trips — with procrastinators and business travelers who buy 7 day advance purchase airfare on AirTran routes (and it’s competitors) has me scratching my head.
I pulled the data from our historical database on AirTran’s Atlanta hub for longer trips (1200 miles or more roundtrip — about 25 destination cities with filed airfare) and put together a sheet with the daily average cheapest 7 day advance price for the month of October 2007 and 2008.
The data doesn’t support the premise that AirTran 7 day advance prices are higher (for the holidays) as cited, rather the contrary. October 2008 is highly volatile and overall lower for 7 day advance fares compared to the same month last year — 10 days in October 2008 were over 40 percent lower than 2007 (airfare sales) — AirTran is notorious for weekly quick in and out “airfare specials” (as clearly evident in the graphic below).

Also shown is an example of AirTran out-the-door ticket prices for a 7 night non-stop roundtrip departing each day in November from Atlanta to Detroit — looks like a pretty good deal to me for Thanksgiving travel (8-Nov-2008 is the 7 day advance purchase price breakpoint; Northwest and Delta have similar pricing in the month for their non-stops).

- You’ll be paying for that suitcase - yes airline fees both new and increased add a wrinkle to the total cost of a trip this year (and likely for many years to come). Consumers should be very aware of these non-ticket charges and prepare accordingly.
- Sales not earlier this year - I checked our historical databases each year from 2004 on and “JOY” Northwest fares did not become the cheapest in the marketplace on until Mid-November mainly because Northwest files a ton of very cheap “K” fares (I call them “Crazy Ivan” fares) that are typically super cheap, good only on Tue/Wed and only blacked out on peak holiday travel days — leaving other off-peak days around the holiday cheaper (with limited inventory).
- Holiday Prices Broadly Higher - we have documented in excruciating detail the run up of 21 attempted airfare hikes this year and the minimalistic pull back in fuel surcharges since oil has dropped in the last 3 months (by over $80 dollars a barrel!).
The disproportionate amount of higher prices this year are being levied on business travelers via a combination of higher fuel surcharges and onerous minimum stay requirements. Small cities with little competition are also bearing the brunt of hefty increases because there is less competition to drive down system wide airfare hikes.
This holiday season is about getting a “better bad deal” - the holiday airfare sale we highlighted is “significant” — to be honest I was worried in early July that airlines would not file holiday sales after announcing unprecedented seat cutbacks (see the scope of the domestic holiday travel price breaks in this graph using our proprietary software). Recent trends in international ticket prices are also down — highlighting both seasonal and economic softness. These down trends provide a welcome respite from this year’s march to ever higher ticket prices — air travelers actually have a much better shot at visiting family and friends over the holidays today than they did just a few short weeks ago.
Our release (portions of which were used by AP in its article that evidently caused this stir) simply noted the “largest volume of sale activity of the year” — a pleasant surprise. It was not an analysis of price trends in 2008 which have been covered in several other articles as recently as the end of September — where we noted that airfares where up from 20 to 40 percent (metros vs. small cities).
Nonetheless, it isn’t just me that is seemingly “out of touch” with holiday prices – take our friends at Farecast who have excellent airfare technology:
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Saw this witty and articulate complaint letter on the always informative UpgradeTravelBetter site, and it’s worth a look.
Bottom line: a long time customer of Midwest Airlines - a businessman who spends a fair amount of money on the carrier - is upset that Midwest wanted to charge him an extra $50 to sit in the comfortable seats that he says used to be standard throughout the aircraft for free.
Here’s an excerpt from the letter:
“This new policy is not exactly a rousing success. On my flight to Washington, there were 9 people in the “Signature Seating” section. On my return, exactly 3 people. The back sections of both flights were full. The difference was so obvious that I’m surprised that, while you were refitting the 717s, you didn’t add a tail-wheel to address the potential load imbalance.” -Irate Midwest passenger
Best part? The letter writer’s priceless description of why Midwest is like having “chunks in your beer”. Do read the letter in its entirety.
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This could be a boon to the airlines - and the U.S. economy in general.
According the Los Angeles Times, the federal government plans to add South Korea, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia to its list of places where visas are not required to visit the U.S. This move could go into effect next month.
The Times says the arduous procedure of getting a visa has kept people away. Which is a pity, since tourism officials say the international visitors stay longer and spend more - about $4,000 compared to the $557 per trip spend by domestic travelers.
Already, South Korea’s Asiana Airlines says it will reinstate direct flights between Seoul and Los Angeles by the end of this year (after a 17-year hiatus) and Korean Air said it would also increase flights to Los Angeles next year.
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We already know the Delta/Northwest merger will create the world’s biggest airline, and that soon the new entity will be known simply as “Delta” - but, what else?
Well, the hubs will all remain, but flights will not be cut and frequent flier miles will remain the same - according to Delta exec Ed Bastian (via the AP),
But bag fees? As my readers know (and anyone who’s seen my Domestic Airline Fee Chart), Northwest charges for a first checked-bag ($15) while Delta does not (though it does charge a whopping $50 for a second checked-bag).
The exec did not rule out the possibility of Delta adding a first checked-bag fee - and I’m not surprised - those fees make real money. But it may take awhile - said Delta’s Bastian, “It’s probably going to take us two years before we can really operate as a single carrier.”
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October 30, 2008
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Sorry, Cincinnati - but according to the Dept. of Transportation’s latest statistics, you were the most expensive airport to fly in or out of - based on second-quarter average fares.
The number-crunchers at the BTS looked at the top 100 airports, and found the highest fares at: Cincinnati, Ohio, followed by Greenville/Spartanburg, SC; Knoxville, TN; Madison, WI; and Grand Rapids, MI.
The lowest fares: Burbank, CA; Houston Hobby; Chicago Midway; Oakland, CA - and the lowest of all - Dallas’ Love Field, the home of Southwest. No surprise there.
Also noted in the BTS Press Release: Atlantic City, NJ, was not included in this report because of the discovery of “incorrect data” in a July report (Spirit Airlines misreported). I remember that report - and I made my concerns about that data known to DOT folks - when I wrote the following:
“This nonsense about Atlantic City being the cheapest city…95+% of all traffic to/from Atlantic City is on Spirit Airlines which specializes in $9 fares and only has service from Tampa, Ft. Myers, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm and Myrtle Beach - hardly a representative sample for the cheapest city claim.” –Rick Seaney, FareCompare.com
I’ll be processing the raw data that generated these BTS stats over the weekend, to compare it with our history. And I’ll let you know what I find out.
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Using our lab only (for now) Best Time to Buy technology, we crunched the numbers on the mega holiday airfare sale mentioned earlier. The chart above (and below) shows American and Northwest (now Delta) average cheapest ticket prices for travel departing each week fo the next 7 months. The red line denotes the prices on these routes from Monday noon and the blue line from last night at 8pm (after the sale and matching of airlines).

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Notice the steep drop in average prices for travel before Valentine’s Day and specifically on Thanksgiving and Christmas
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A 10% or more average decrease translates into savings of $100 or more per person (unfortunately, some cities aren’t on sale)
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Between 50 cities, there are more than 1,200 city-pairs, and we check almost 10,000 airfares per airline per week!
Procrastinators are getting a break — so don’t wait too long to check out prices and don’t forget to compare airline fees for the total cost of your trip!
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The core service of all airlines is moving people from Point A to Point B - and that means, on-time and with their bags.
My prediction: watch for the domestic airlines to crow about the statistical strides they’ve made in both areas, come January.
Why?
With passengers paying up to $130 roundtrip for 2 checked-bags, and, over 200,000 fewer seats daily (that’s approximately 2,000 less flights), that means fewer checked-bags to mishandle and fewer issues with delays and cancellations (always assuming that that wild card, Mother Nature, doesn’t get out of hand too badly).
I don’t think the flight attendants will be doing much crowing during this upcoming holiday travel season, and I do feel for them - they will have to deal with tons of surly consumers getting on planes with what is sure to be the largest amount of carry-on baggage in the history of domestic aviation…
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Here are the immediate effects of that $2.6 billion Delta/Northwest merger and how it is going to affect you right now: [blank space]. Get it?
In other words, it’s not going to affect you - not at the moment, anyway. It’s going to take as long as two years for the two carriers to completely merge into the world’s largest airline. In the meantime, Delta and Northwest will be operating as two separate airlines. But eventually, when fully integrated, the merged airlines will be known simply as “Delta”.
And as the Delta people say, for now “it’s business as usual” - which means, if you’ve booked on one airline’s site, continue to go to that site if you want to check the flight or make changes or whatever you might normally do.
And yes, your frequent flier miles are perfectly safe. Changes are coming - but slowly.
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October 29, 2008
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Thought you couldn’t travel during the holidays? You might want to think again.
In the past 24 hours, FareCompare.com’s proprietary airfare tracking system (which processes tens of thousands of airfares daily from over 500 airlines) noted the largest domestic airfare sale activity - at any time in the past year.
While most of the ticket pricing activity this year has been on the increase side, recently we’ve seen a spate of targeted airfare sales launched early in the week and expiring on Fridays - BUT - this new activity - again, over the past 24-hours - has been 10-fold compared to that recent weekly sale activity.
And the best part is, most of this NEW sale activity is targeted specifically at HOLIDAY travelers.
This is great news for consumers, many of whom have given up on holiday travel this year.
Keep reading - I name specific airlines, and specific amounts you can save…
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Say you’re flying from New York to Chicago, and you want to pack a lot, but don’t want to bother with shepherding a big bag through the airport - would you pay $149 to have that bag shipped overnight so it would be there waiting for you at your Chicago hotel when you arrive? How about if this was “door to door” service?
United is betting some people will do just that.
So they started “Door to Door” baggage service - it cost $149 - that’s one-way — for trips under 1,000 miles - the charge is $179 for longer trips - only within the 48-contiguous states.
Keep reading, for more details — is it really WORTH it? (Skiers, pay attention!)…
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It’s not looking good in Las Vegas - the number of people flying to and from the gambling mecca was way down last month - off more than 13% compared to last September.
More bad news for the already battered economy of Southern Nevada, according to a report in the Las Vegas Review-Journal - especially for Las Vegas - which gets nearly half of its 40-million annual visitors, via the airlines.
Almost all the major carriers were down in September - and, the year - with the notable exception of American Airlines, which had a 1.1% increase in traffic for the year through last month.
But for September alone, this is the worst year-over-year decline, since the months that followed 9/11.
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Interesting. Spotted this yesterday in the Dallas Morning News.
If you have a Continental-branded Chase credit card/debit card, you do not have to pay that first checked-bag fee - and that’s a savings of $30 round-trip.
And if you have the Continental Presidential Plus card, no second checked-bag fee either (save another $50 round-trip).
Usually, bag fees are waived only for “elite” frequent fliers - now, there’s another way - and you can read all about it on Continental’s website.
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Smart travelers know that the crowded holiday travel season is the best time to pack a carry-on bag - you get in and out of the airport more quickly, and you avoid those dreaded checked-bag fees.
But we’ve all seen folks try to stuff a 60-inch bag in a 40-inch overhead bin - and we’ve watched as these people delay and delay the boarding process, but guess what?
The baggage police are back.
According to the Denver Post, they’ll be cracking down again - size-wise. If your carry-on is too big, chances are you will be called on it, and made to check it.
Avoid such delays. And it’s easy with my up-to-date Airline Carry-on Baggage Chart. And you should check it every time you fly - because sizes change.
Continental, for example, had allowed its passengers a 51-linear inch bag (linear inch = length + width + height), but as of November 1, they’ve reduced the size to the more standard 45-linear inches.
What happens if your bag is too big? According to the Post story, if you manage to get your bag to the plane and crew members decide it has to be checked, you probably won’t have to pay (the system really isn’t set up to take your money at that point) - but, warning: in the past, airlines have set up baggage police lines before you get to security, and they will make you pay.
And understandably so - baggage fees make the airlines hundreds of millions of dollars a year. If you do have to check a bag, here’s a new way to avoid the fee if you fly Continental.
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In my latest weekly column, I talk about how frequent flier mile programs are getting “watered down”, that some airlines are talking about spinning these assets off, and, I ask the question — what if my airline goes bankrupt?
Short answer: your miles are most likely going to be safe.
True, they’re not worth as much anymore. You need more miles for trips, and now, American Airlines has now joined Continental and other in changing the rules on short hops - no more automatic 500 miles - you now get “actual miles flown”.
But airlines love these programs, since they are a big financial asset - and they’re not going away.
The questions is - is it worth it to YOU to keep participating? I say yes. And here’s why:
The aforementioned “actual miles flown” rule? That doesn’t apply to “elite” frequent fliers, nor do the baggage fees. Plus, “elite” status gets you onboard the plane first - the better to find room for your carry-on bag.
See my entire column here - and as a bonus, a quick history of S&H green stamps and that awful glue - no kidding.
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October 28, 2008
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Some interesting results from a SmarterTravel survey of 10,000 readers - let’s just say that Southwest is a big favorite with those folks, and to a lesser extent, so is JetBlue.
Southwest won in so many categories (and these are all categories for domestic airlines): Best Value , Best Customer Service, Best Airfare Prices, Best Routes, Best Economy Class, Best Baggage Service - and on and on and on, up to and including Cleanest Cabin.
Least Favorite Domestic Airline? This category was “won” by US Airways.
There are a couple of puzzlers in the list - for example, Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International takes the 2nd place spot for “Least Favorite U.S. Airport” - but it also comes in #3 in the list of “Favorite U.S. Airports”.
See the complete list here.
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I did a study on the impact of rescinding the frequent flier 500 minimum rule back in September (chart from 5-Sep-08 below, click the link for methodology) when Continental announced that they were changing their frequent flier policy to credit frequent flier accounts with exact flown mileage – instead of decades old standard of 500 mile minimum per flight.
American announced to non-elite flyers yesterday they will also only be credited with “exact flown mileage” making it more difficult for travelers to achieve elite status (normally 25,000 miles), which carries with it perks like priority boarding and waived checked bag fees:

This chart assummed putting all travelers on the “exact flown” rule (United, US Airways), Continental later changed it’s mind allowing elitesto maintain500 mile mimimum along with American — The new Delta/Northwest the lone holdout … for now.
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This is a topic we’ve covered before - oil is down, but fuel surcharges remain high. We know why - it is about ticket prices not the length of a trip nor the price of oil.
But as USA Today points out in an article we did some work on, it’s getting a tad ridiculous - especially with the international brigade. For example, the paper cited a recent Thai Airways round-trip flight from Los Angeles to Bangkok - that carried a $542 fuel surcharge. That’s $352 more than the airline charged a year ago.
And the kicker? The price of jet fuel - which averaged about $2.35 last week - is about the same as it was as it in September of 2007, and actually lower than the price on Oct. 22 of last year!
I had a quote in the story, and it’s worth repeating:
“All the noise about airlines rolling back their fuel surcharges to pre-oil-crisis levels is a bunch of hooey.” - Rick Seaney, FareCompare
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October 27, 2008
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The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is predicting the end of liquid “size restrictions” for some time in the fall of 2009.
Check it out on their blog - it says the new “AT X-Ray” software will be “advanced enough to tell the difference between threat and non-threat” when liquids are place in a separate bin. So the thinking is, by about this time next year, you can carry as much in the way of liquids or gels as you like, provided you pull them out of your bag and place the items in a separate bin.
And by the end of 2010 - they say you won’t even have to separate your liquids.
This is great news. Now let’s work on the annoying shoe removal ritual.
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The latest statistics - for September - from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are pretty grim.
Cargo declined 7.7%, and revenue per passenger kilometer was down almost 3%.
Needless to say, these numbers do NOT yet reflect any of the fallout from the world’s economic meltdown - so expect the news to get worse later this year.
Sign of the times we live in.
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How does a fare as low as $130 one-way way from Seattle to Minneapolis/St. Paul sound? And that includes a free checked-bag.
That’s the deal offered by Alaska Airlines for travel through February 12, to kick off the airline’s newest route. There are blackout dates (forget this fare for prime Thanksgiving/Christmas dates), so be sure and check out the details on Alaska’s website.
There’s something about the Twin Cities: as you know, Southwest recently announced a new route to Minneapolis/St. Paul - with service beginning in March.
Northwest has always been up for a good fight, so this could be fun to watch … and save!
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No more fumbling around for your paper boarding pass at the security checkpoint.
Now you can simply show the TSA agent your cell phone or PDA - as it displays the downloaded boarding pass. The agent then uses a handheld scanner on boarding pass bar code - and, you’re good to go.
It’s not everywhere yet, though -the pilot program is only available at 10 airports, and 4 airlines. Here’s the list:
Continental:
- Austin - Austin-Bergstrom International
- Boston - Logan International
- Cleveland - Cleveland Hopkins Airport
- Houston - George Bush Intercontinental
- Newark - Neward Liberty International
- San Antonio International
- Washington - Ronald Reagan Washington National
Northwest Airlines:
- Indianapolis International
Delta Airlines
- New York - LaGuardia Airport
Alaska Airlines
- Seattle - Seattle-Tacoma International
Also note: Northwest plans to add Detroit to its roster of airports, soon.
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October 24, 2008
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How does $50 per barrel oil grab you?
It has my attention.
After all, it’s one of the ingredients in the recipe for cheaper ticket prices in the near future:
- Cheap jet fuel
- Emptier planes (even in the wake of massive seat cuts)
- Strong dollar (for those international adventurers)
- Sprinkle of luck
Many of us will unfortunately be watching on the sidelines as the economy craters around us - which is one of the “trickle down” causes for this perfect storm brewing for cheaper air travel.
The bottom line is that spending - and that includes spending on travel - will certainly be at least part of what helps pull us out of these economic doldrums - and maybe we can do some of this traveling a little more cheaply in the near future.
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Just got some statistics from Orlando International Airport - here’s the deal:
- During September, domestic traffic was down nearly 15% (ouch).
- The good news is, international traffic was up almost 19% last month.
Overall, traffic was off in September nearly 13% — but looking at Orlando’s fiscal year as a whole (Oct. 1, 2007 through Sept. 30, 2008), there was a bit of an improvement over the previous year - a 2.2% increase in passengers.
As you might expect, airport officials are doing what they can to turn things around - for example, there’s a big ad campaign urging travelers to head to Florida in the fall - now if only the economy would cooperate, as well.
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The global trade organization, International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that international airline passenger traffic fell 2.9% in September - and Dow Jones reports IATA execs find this “alarming”. As they should.
Of greatest concern perhaps - Middle East airlines are suffering their first drop “after years of double-digit growth” - those carriers were down 2.8% in September.
One bright spot for the airline industry was higher traffic reported for Latin America.
As the saying goes, one man’s problem is another man’s opportunity, so keep your eyes open for some international deals.
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Perhaps you saw yesterday’s informative piece called “Human Error Stubborn Snag in Airline Safety” and it was indeed a sobering account of errors pilots have made in recent years - with potentially calamitous results.
Sometimes, it seems, the pilots just make “mistakes” - they’re distracted or whatever - and sometimes, as Jeanne Leblanc points out in the Hartford Courant, they just get tired.
Believe me, there is no excuse - for any of this — ever.
That said, I think it’s only fair to point out the sheer excellence of the vast majority of our airline pilots - and the incredible job they do, day in and day out.
“When I think about the mistakes I see drivers make every day - the mistakes I see myself make - I am awed by the skill and precision of airline pilots. They are the reason for the impressive safety record of U.S. aviation.” – Jeanne Leblanc, Hartford Courant
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