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The year 2010 sounds so far away, but – face it – it’s really just around the corner.
I was thinking about this, after being asked to participate in a panel discussion on the future of air travel – a discussion hosted by Southwest Airlines.
So will the future be all that different? To an extent. What I’ve done is isolate some of the trends I expect will continue – so take a look – and add to the list if you like, in the comments section.
14 AIR TRAVEL TRENDS: 2010
1. Decline of Human Interaction: it started with Alaska Airline’s “virtual customer service agent Jenn” and kiosks galore
- Ticket and luggage barcodes sent directly to phones, handheld devices
- Retinal scans at TSA checkpoints
- Noise-canceling headphones — for relief from the cell phones on planes
I’ve got more - lots more – so please keep reading.
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2. Airplane Cabins Resemble Subway Cars: the advertising age meets flying
- Ads on tray tables, overhead bins and boarding passes have already started
- Look for future ads on barf bags and on “free” blankets/pillows
3. Money Talks: as airfares go higher, spur-of-the-moment leisure travel declines
- Only the rich will continue to fly anytime they like
- Don’t look for fees and surcharges to drop anytime soon (oil has fallen, but airlines must make up for the “bad years”)
- Renewed talk about re-regulation and the government controlling prices
4. A la Carte Aviation: pay for what you use
- Look for the equivalent of a Sushi menu for trip costs, bags, legroom, food, beverages and more
- Fuel surcharges index on the daily price of fuel
5. Airfare Deals – Harder to Find: meticulous trip-planning is key to savings
- Fliers must take advantage of all technology (including email alerts, historical data and more)
- Procrastination on ticket purchases will not be rewarded
6. Domestic U.S. Airlines Race to Upgrade Int’l. Cabins: international airlines taking delivery of mostly new aircraft
- High prices means competition in service and amenities for international travel; U.S. carriers woefully behind with older aircraft and “a la carte basic services” like meals
7. Oil Prices Dictate Available Seats: flight cuts on U.S. routes will continue
- Don’t expect to get a last minute ticket to a popular destination; the seat will be gone
- Watch the legacy network carriers continue to put most of their eggs in the international basket
8. Watch for “Shaky” Airlines, Merger Candidates: learn to avoid them
- U.S. airlines are out of the woods for the moment but not so for dozens of international airlines (especially low cost carriers)
- Don’t get stranded if your airline suddenly goes out of business
- If you buy a ticket months in advance, monitor the airline to make sure your flight doesn’t “disappear”
9. Passenger Bill of Rights: look for passage by 2010
- Requires airlines to have emergency plans for tarmac delays and rules for passenger off-loading, and food and water stocks
10. Travel Light: bag fees are not going to disappear
- Pack as though everything must fit in a 16 oz mug – carry-on, and save
- The technology exists to improve baggage handling, but it’s still too expensive to implement
11. Frequent Flier Programs Lose Value: the awards get more expensive
- More redemption fees, and more miles chasing fewer seats (especially to Hawaii , Las Vegas and Orlando)
- Still worth joining for “perks” like priority boarding & waived baggage fees
12. Small-town America Angst: more towns are losing more flights
- Savings for fliers in small towns requires treks to bigger cities (and hubs) by bus, car and air taxi
13. Non-Stop Flight Premiums: fewer flights, less convenience, connecting flights cheaper
- Connecting flights are becoming much more attractively priced compared to non-stops
14. Alternate Holiday Celebrations: avoid peak travel times and save
- Try celebrating Thanksgiving when Canadians do (October)
- Fly on the “big day” itself: Thanksgiving Day and/or Christmas Day
Reference comment #13
Rick,
I believe what you are saying is connecting and direct flight are cheaper than non-stop flights.
i.e.
Direct Flight: one that makes one or more stops before proceeding to its final destination.
Non-Stop Flight: one that proceeds to its final destination without stopping enroute.
Connecting flight: Passenger travels from point “A” to point “C” while changing planes at point “B”.
Otherwise, found your article very interesting.
Regards.
Shit, I spent 30 years in the business and I could not have said it better, I have made suggestions but no one cares or seems to listen.
I for one look forward to your revelations turning into fact.
best to you, and keep reporting.
joe
I am very appreciative for your Air Travel Trends for Travel 2010. I do much traveling and do alot of marketing and think you are right on with the marketing info via airlines. The airlines have alot of opportunity to display ads and make the extra money they will need! It is evident the airports have found that nitch. I just got back from Cancun as my most recent trip and met a freelance writer from Germany. She and I had Asian cuisine and shared a table together since we were both alone. We shared many stories! She was writing about Cancun itself and Cancun expansions and the travelers to fill in the resorts that are popping up all over making the land quite expensive with its assumptions the travelers will come. However, at this time it does not appear the travelers are filling the resorts. I indicated that this was off season and my hopes for their survival was during peak time! I think we will see more travelers hitting off season for economic reasons in place of peak season to suppliment just what your Trends for 2010 states. Sincerely, Lisa Danzer Carroll Iowa
Thanks Rick,
Appreciate the post. At this point, we’re all hungry for any perspective on this wildly shifting landscape.
Great tips (traveling on the holiday itself has always worked for our family), but overall some sobering advice.
Could you give me any help with fares for the military.My grandson just came home from Navy school in Pensacola to Boston and will be going to Norfolk Oct 15, they do not have the ability to preplan as they don’t know what there location will be or exactly when they will be able to leave, they only know for sure when they must be back, but only 2 weeks before they must be there. His ticket cost him about $550, quite a schock to the family budget on a new seamans pay. Any advice would be appreciated.
Always good stuff to learn and helpful. Though not reassuring as to convenience and costs re: air travel. Suspect that, along with courtesy, is waning. We’ll probably have a lot of nostalgia for the “good old days.”
Thanks. Very informative.
Pat Harrington
Retinal scan…the sounds of that makes me shiver
Good info. Rick: Friends are always telling me to wait and grab those last minute airfare deals. It would seem that all of these cheap fare web sites have been crafted to do exactly that type of last minute grab. If present trends continue that would seem to be a very bad idea. So these sites increasingly seem to make less sense to me. I continue to book my flights months in advance. What do you predict?
Carol Lebrie Comment #6: Inquire with airlines benefits for active duty military discounts. Many have them, Don 3-Oct-08
Well not so fast Rick,
You said:
12. Small-town America Angst: more towns are losing more flights
Savings for fliers in small towns requires treks to bigger cities (and hubs) by bus, car and air taxi
Not if you have Allegiant Air in your town – actually much cheaper than flying out of a bigger city hub, with less hassle.
As far as I know only Allegiant Air increased its air traffic in Feb 2009.
Depending on where you are going, you can fly Allegiant out and then easily connect in Vegas, LAX, TAMPA (only 7 miles from St. Pete Airport), and Ft. Lauderdale on another carrier to wherever.
Small and mid-size towns no need to fear Rick’s scare tactics – use your brain and fly smart,