I’ll cut to the chase: no one can say with any certainty just yet if airfares to Europe will rise (or fall) this summer as a result of Iceland’s ash-spewing volcano that shut down travel to the British Isles and much of the Continent for nearly a week.

It’s just not clear – yet.

But this we do know: Airlines lost at least $1.7 billion, according to the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), who has called on European governments to look into helping to compensate the airlines, much as the U.S. did in the wake of 9/11.

Now, before all this happened, summer non-stop flights to London for example, had been running close to historical airfare pricing norms (outside of oil crises and recessions); for example, we’ve been seeing Los Angeles and Chicago roundtrip to London for about $1,250 and just under $1,000 from New York – clearly nowhere near as cheap as last year, when prices were at 10 year lows.

Keep reading – I’ve got some thoughts on “passenger jitters”…

So could they go higher? I am a bit mixed on this. Some may treat the volcanic ash event like Florida or Caribbean “hurricane jitters” – especially if the ash begins to fly again, or does so intermittently – in which case, they may forgo European jaunts to the benefit of the non-jittery who might then see prices drop a bit. Note I said, might.

As always, Mother Nature has the last word.

I think we’ll know more soon, and when that happens, I will pass it along.