UPDATE (4/6/11): The 9th attempted domestic airfare hike of 2011 has failed. The final remnants (price increases) were rolled back yesterday afternoon, making this the third consecutive airfare hike to end in failure.

EARLIER:

Airfare Rising: The airlines are trying to raise airfare prices for the ninth time this year – and if you’ve been paying attention, then you know that most of the hikes have been successful.

Check out my latest exclusive on this new airfare hike attempt – and I really want you to take a look at the pretty amazing graphic on airfare prices over the past couple of years. It’ll give you an oh-so-clear picture of what’s happening (and likely, what to expect).

What can you do? Well, at FareCompare, we’ll always show you the best prices available, but I urge you to sign up for our free, real-time airfare alerts. It’s so simple, and we do the work for you – letting you know when prices on trips you’re interested in come down.

Betting on Airfare

This is a weird one: Allegiant Air is apparently considered asking you to gamble on the price of your airfare.

Blame it on rising oil prices.

Gamble on Airfare, Gamble on Oil

Allegiant has suggested (and this has not been okayed by anyone, let alone the government) that passengers could choose between a “regular” ticket with a fixed price, or gamble on a so-called “variable” ticket. With a variable ticket, fliers would pay one price, but if the cost of jet fuel dropped by the departure date, the passenger would get cash back. However, if the price goes up, passengers would pay more (up to particular “cap”). Sound intriguing? Or looney?

I guess you have to remember where Allegiant is headquartered: Las Vegas.

It kind of reminds me of Continental’s fairly new FareLock innovation which allows you to book a flight and, if you like, you can pay a fee that starts at $9 to hold that reservation at the locked-in fare for up to a week. In other words, should the price of that airfare rise, you win, but if it drops, you can just cancel without paying the heavy change fee, and all you’re out is that FareLock fee.

Better Idea – Sign up for FareCompare Airfare Alerts

So let’s go back to Allegiant: I’m a little concerned that it will turn fliers into “oil price” day traders. I’ve got a better idea.

Sign up for the FareCompare Airfare Alerts, and let us do the work for you; we’ll watch the prices and let you know when they come down. No need to gamble whatsoever.

What Do You Think?

What do you think about betting on airfare? Tell me on the FareCompare Facebook page – I’d really love to hear.

More from Rick Seaney:

Got Luck? Gamble on Price of Your Airline Ticket

AmericanAirline’s attempted $10 roundtrip domestic airfare hike launched earlier this week was followed by an entire day of inactivity from legacy and low cost domestic airlines – meaning, they decided not to match the hike. So, moments ago, American rolled back the hike to maintain competitive equilibrium.

Does this mean consumers have hit their saturation point on higher ticket prices?

It is too early to tell. Just FYI, in 2008 we also saw a handful of unsuccessful hikes during weekly attempts in March and April of that year.

Rather than a statement on consumer demand waning, this aborted increase attempt could just as easily mean that domestic airlines want more time to evaluate bookings before jumping back in on the hike band wagon

I fully expect another domestic hike attempt next week, as carriers continue to probe the appetites of travelers (and that of their competition) to lift the price of airline tickets.

Learn more about FareCompare and the cheapest days to fly and best times to buy airline tickets for year-round savings.

The calendar may say March, but it sure feels like Groundhog Day.

Make that, Groundhog week. On Thurday evening (March 9), American Airlines filed a $10 roundtrip domestic airfare hike; the 7th airfare hike attempt of 2011.  And neither Canada nor Hawaii was spared as prices were lifted by $21 roundtrip on those routes.

Eerily, 2011 is tracking in lockstep with the first nine weeks of 2008 – take a look at the figures, “then and now”:

• March 9, 2008 – Oil hits $105/barrel
• March 9, 2011 – Oil hits $104/barrel

Another “then and now”:

• As of March 7, 2008 – 7 domestic airfare hike attempts (5 successful)
• As of March 9, 2011 – 7 domestic airfare hike attempts (6 successful)

If history continues to repeat itself, we should see weekly hike attempts of at least $10 roundtrip through the end of April – just as we did in 2008 (note: oil hit $115/barrel in April ’08).

As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

I expect the legacy airlines to continue such hike attempts on a weekly basis, and to see “hike matching” as a tight knit group (save the rare resistance of US Airways); I also expect these airlines to watch intently to see if their low cost carrier brethren hop on board. If that doesn’t happen, the legacies will have no choice but to rollback their airfare hikes or tiptoe around the low cost carrier routes to maintain competitive equilibrium.

Taking into account summer travel surcharges, our internal index of average cheapest domestic roundtrip prices between the top 50 U.S. cities is nearly at the same levels we saw peak in June of 2008.

The $10,000,000 question: When will consumers begin to push back – if at all?

Today, as legacy airlines continue to pull the seat capacity-cutting rip cord, it is pretty clear that the pushback has not yet started – not just yet.

We’ll update as any matching or rollback activity unfolds over the next few days.