July 3, 2009
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Every now and then I come across a “destination nugget” that intrigues me, which I will pass along to you - like the cool Manta ride or the free National Parks weekends. Here’s the latest:
Up for something truly scary? Chicago’s Sears Tower, the tallest building in the U.S., has just opened 4 glass “viewing boxes” to the public - that stick out from the building - 103 floors up!
And that glass - which is a mere one-and-a-half inches thick - completely surrounds you, including under your feet. So you see everything. If you dare.
It is said to give you the “sensation of floating” - I’m afraid it might give me another sensation altogether - but the view of the city and the Chicago River below looks magnificent. Well, it would if you could bear to open your eyes.
The glass is supposed to be able to withstand 5-tons - far more than the weight of the number of people that could fit on a platform at any one time. Still…(shudder).
Which reminds me - I’ve just used FareCompare’s New Deal Finder, and there are some good prices to Chicago - like this cheap fare from New York to Chicago for just $209 roundtrip total.
Meanwhile, you’ll have to excuse me — I’m getting dizzy just looking at the viewing box photos.
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June 8, 2009
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Yes, the world of commercial aviation is changing.
Back in March, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expected its global members would “only” lose about $4.7 billion in 2009.
Now that loss figure is expected to double - or, close to it - to $9 billion.
Per the New York Times, blame the economy: business travelers (or their bosses) are saying no to first class and business class travel, always a major source of revenue - plus the red hot economies of China and India are cooling off, which is having a tremendous effect on Asian carriers.
IATA General Director Giovanni Bisignani says the world is changing as a result of the global financial meltdown and added, “It will not be business as usual in the post-crisis world.” I’m not sure I completely agree with that - I think most travelers roll with the punches, and when times are bad they tighten that belt, and when times are good - they let loose and enjoy some luxury. No matter - we’ll all see what happens, eventually.
And a bit of perspective: as bad as a $9 billion loss is (and it’s very bad), it’s still not as dire as the $10.4 billion global loss suffered last year - thanks to soaring oil prices.
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May 23, 2009
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Happy Memorial Day Weekend!
We hope this is the start of a terrific summer for you.
Safe travels, always.
From your friends at Farecompare
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April 20, 2009
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Tracking domestic airfare hikes just got a lot more complicated this past weekend.
The domestic airlines have radically changed airfare price filing behavior this past weekend - by adding multiple departure windows at different prices points - for the same airfare code.
Most airlines match their competitors by airfare code, so this is a big change.
The software we’ve been using to track system-wide airfare hikes only grabs the lowest of these prices for comparison - and doesn’t handle this new method of filing single airfare code with multiple departure windows.
Other domestic airlines also are having trouble digesting this new “multiple price per fare code” method of airfare filing - in order to properly match and stay competitive - thus, the confusion on this particular hike attempt over, who started this? And, is it sticky?
United has stated they instigated the latest hike (our first activity noted Continental) and other airlines continue fumble around matching.
Using our new weekly date based pricing software - which prices the lowest price each week (not the overall lowest) - we have re-reviewed the past 10-domestic airfare feeds, and it shows that United did indeed start the hike Thursday night at 8pm by filing a hike for departures for July only.
Looking at the airline activity this morning showed many of them are struggling to match this new “departure window” filing method, so we are going to wait until later today to do a full automated weekly analysis. However, it appears the hike is mostly sticky - but we won’t be able to tell for sure until after the airlines finally calm down on their airfare filings (we have seen at least 2 feeds this morning where some city pairs only have $2,000 airfares for travel in the fall - as airlines struggle to adjust their airfares).
Keep reading for some nuts-and-bolts and more…
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April 15, 2009
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Starting today, if you travel on United Airlines - you better fit in your seat.
The airline has adopted a new policy “for the comfort and well-being of all our guests”. Here are the details, according United’s website: you will be required to purchase a second seat IF you 1.) can’t buckle up with an “extended” seatbelt - or, 2.) can’t get the armrests down - or, 3.) “infringe” on another passenger’s seat.
However, you will not have to pay for a second seat, if the airline can put you next to an empty seat (and as United spokesperson Robin Urbanski notes, full flights are “rare in today’s economy”).
If the plane is full, United will get you on the next available flight with two empty seats together - and you will be charged the same price for the second seat that you paid for the first (as opposed to the “same day” purchase price for that second seat, which can be steep).
According to Urbanski, last year United Airlines received “almost 700 complaints from guests who did not have a comfortable flight because the person next to them infringed on their seat” - and this new policy (which other airlines - including Southwest - already have in place) is United’s answer to those complaints.
Well, readers - what do you think?
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March 20, 2009
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I admit it: I’m a geek - an airfare geek.
As such, I probably do more reading and studying and ruminating about airline ticket pricing and air travel in a single day - than most folks would do in a lifetime. It’s what I do.
So I’m a little puzzled by a recent attack on this noble calling of mine. It was in an article from an “airfare expert” - an article so laced with buffalo chips that I couldn’t resist responding (and yes, I know my buffalo chips - as a native of West Texas, I have shoveled my share - literally).
Anyway, this article seems to want to downplay statistics tossed out by pundits (gosh, who could he be talking about?) - statistics specifically relating to the art and science of scoring a good deal on air travel.
Let me say right from the start: statistics are meaningful, and can be extremely useful. But, before I dive in, I’d like to toss out a few facts about airfare that will help frame the discussion.
Keep reading - you’re going to have fun and learn something!
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March 5, 2009
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Airline passenger traffic stats in February were way, way down. And while I take no joy in anyone’s difficulties - this is a real opportunity for the rest of us.
Yes, even in these tough times, there are good reasons to fly.
Please take a look at this list - maybe you’ll be encouraged and energized to head out to the airport again.
1. Flying is Cheap Again. Consider this: in 2007 and 2008, there were a total of 32 airfare hikes. In 2009, there have been no hikes — just 32 airfare sales. Examples:
2. Hotels are Cheap. Resort destinations are begging for guests - and offering deals not seen in years. If you thought you couldn’t fly because you had no place to say, think again:
3. Reconnect with Family. In times like these, there’s nothing like the emotional support of getting together with friends and family — and now you can afford it (and you might not even have to spring for a hotel). How about a reunion?
5. Mental Health Break. Nobody wants to break the bank for a vacation today - but you don’t have to. Nor do you have to go away for 2 weeks, either. Try a mini-vacation to refresh and renew - and use email alerts to find out about the cheapest deals first.
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March 4, 2009
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All the news coverage of the woman who gave birth to octuplets made me wonder: how would she and the babies (and the other six kids) all manage on a plane? Not to mention, pay for it.
Which leads me to one of our most “frequently asked questions” here at FareCompare.com, and that is - what does it cost to fly with children? The answers are varied. Exceptions abound. When in doubt, check out your airlines website (some hide the info pretty well) or, worst case scenario, ring the airline.
But I do have some guidelines that may be helpful:
Domestic Rule of Thumb: For flights in the U.S., you can generally expect to pay full-fare for infants and children in their own seats - while flying with a “lap child” (under 2 years of age at departure time) is usually free. Note: It used to be a rule-of-thumb that seniors could get a 5 to 10% discount — but this is no longer commonplace.
Yes, There are Exceptions: Southwest is one of them. According to the airline’s website, Southwest “offers very affordable Infant Fares for children under two years of age” in a separate seat. Please note, you cannot reserve such seats on Southwest.com, but must call the reservation number. Note: Southwest has senior fares, too — while many airlines have discontinued this practice (though some legacy carriers will match these prices on Southwest routes). Final note: all fares are subject to change at any time.
Domestic Bottom Line: Check your airline’s website (look under headings such as “travel information” or “services” or just type the word “children” in the site’s search box). If you do not find information that answers your specific question, call the airline.
TIP: Even if a website says no discounts for children (or for seniors, or no bereavement fares), a call can’t hurt (you might get someone knowledgeable on the other side). It never hurts to ask - and sometimes, it works.
International Rule of Thumb: For international flights, there don’t appear to be many hard and fast rules. Some examples, coming right up - so click “more” and keep reading.
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March 3, 2009
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I saw this in the New York Times the other day, and got a bit of a chuckle out of it - because it’s a topic I blogged about way back last summer.
In the Times article, an MIT study makes the following point:
- Non-stop flights are more fuel-efficient because more fuel is used during take-offs and landings
I didn’t go to MIT, but this isn’t that difficult a concept. Nor is the fact that airlines used to charge more for non-stops (driving passengers crazy) — because non-stops were in demand. So to save money, you flew flights with stops — but that made it tough to be environmentally responsible by saving fuel! As I wrote in one of my ABCNews.com columns last June:
“We passengers are simple people - all we want to do is get from Point A to Point B as quickly as possible with our luggage intact, for a decent price. Throw in the option of making these journeys a little greener, and a lot of us will be there for you.” -Rick Seaney for ABCNews.com
The good news is, it has gotten easier to go green now because prices have gotten a lot better on non-stops — mainly due to the rotten economy and poor traffic statistics, which has prompted amazing deals on airfare. Today, non-stops are not always more expensive — and sometimes, they’re even cheaper.
By the way, this is also covered (briefly) on our sister-blog, Standard Upright Position, and the writer of that post clearly didn’t go to MIT either.
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February 24, 2009
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There have been so many drastic changes with airline ticket pricing behavior in the past few months that I figured it was about time I decided to put out my daily analysis of the airfare filing activity - concentrating on the cheapest prices for flights across the globe.
Reviewing last night’s 8pm domestic U.S. airfare filing activity I see the following:
- AirTran filed a system wide airfare sale with new lows in 773 city pairs with average roundtrip price drop of $80 roundtrip. Biggest winners in the sale are Atlanta (their hub with 53 city pairs is down an average $127), Branson, Missouri (48 city pairs down an average of $123 roundtrip) and Newport News (41 city pairs down an average of $133 roundtrip). AirTran seems to have this sort of filing activity every few Mondays, so your best time to shop for airline tickets on AirTran is Tuesday morning
- United Airlines readjusted airfares in numerous small cities like Helena, Kalispell, and Casper, dropping its cheapest prices an average of $43. The biggest winner cities averaging over a $100 average price drop were Springfield, Wausau, Traverse City, Peoria, and Greenville
- There was a ton of filing activity related to Canada as almost all the remaining legacy airlines dropped prices to several Canadian cities. WestJet and Air Canada have both been very active recently and prices for flights between the U.S. and Canada have been very volatile, swinging hundreds of dollars roundtrip each week. If you are buying in these markets, you need to sign up for our airline ticket price drop alerts so you don’t get caught in the up cycle
- Southwest Airlines had a lot of activity which I document in a special separate post.
On the international side, in the last 4 airfare feeds (of 5 daily), pricing activity was very volatile with some unbelievable deals - here is a brief rundown:
o US Airways drops prices from 155 cities to Tel Aviv by an average of $132 roundtrip, with new service this summer from Philadelphia and code shares with Lufthansa - you can get some real steals right now
o American Airlines dropped prices to Helsinki by an average of $70 roundtrip from 33 cities
o Continental dropped prices to Seoul by an average of $400 from 7 cities including Austin, Baltimore, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Orlando, Pittsburgh and Providence
o Delta dropped its price on Charlotte to Rome for travel through mid-May by $226 roundtrip ($605 including all taxes/fees)
o US Airways knocked off $100 roundtrip from 23 cities to San Jose, Costa Rica for travel through the end of May
o AeroMexico dropped Washington to Cancun by $260 roundtrip ($340 all included)
o Continental matched US Airways’ drop of $400 on average to Seoul
o American dropped prices from a dozen cities to Beijing by several hundred dollars (San Francisco is its largest departure city) |
February 6, 2009
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This is pretty big news: Delta is lowering ticket prices to all destinations from its Cincinnati hub.
The cuts are effective immediately, and will range from 5% to 60% off. Even better, these are meant to be permanent price changes - it’s not just a one-time sale.
Here’s why: Delta got tired of hearing Cincinnati referred to as “the most expensive airport in the nation” (the quote is courtesy of the Associated Press) and I’m sure they got real tired of losing revenue from folks who patronized nearby airports.
A Delta exec says the airfare cuts will encourage folks to fly in and out of the Queen City “rather than wasting time and money driving to neighboring airports.”
A colleague of mine told me that, whenever she needed to fly to Cincinnati, she’d fly instead to Dayton or Columbus or even Indianapolis, because those airports were so much cheaper (“you could say I wasted time,” she added, “but I sure as heck wasn’t wasting money!”)
Now it seems, she won’t have to waste either one.
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January 16, 2009
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Airline ticket bookings by agent were basically flat for the past year - but if you look at the latter months, it’s another story.
According to the Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC - which provides much of the travel agent industry with service and support including ticket distribution), international and domestic fare sales for Dec. of 2008 were down a whopping 9% compared with Dec. 2007.
The culprit, not surprisingly: those ubiquitous “challenging market conditions”.
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January 5, 2009
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Here’s something you may not have known (and I learned about from the Detroit News): this year, Delta Airlines will be the first passenger and cargo carrier to offer services to every continent in the world — except Antarctica.
And for the mega-airline (which includes Northwest, since the 2008 merger), this is another way to jump-start that bottom line. A continuation, if you will, of what airlines have done with bags fees and food charges — now, cargo revenue is taking on more importance than ever.
How important? Well, in the 3rd quarter of last year, Delta’s cargo revenue increased by 35 percent over the same quarter of the previous year — up to $162 million. Watch for others to put more resources in this area.
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December 22, 2008
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Frontier Airlines is offering a brand new way of buying airfare — they call it “AirFairs” — which seems to be simply another way of saying, “if you spend more, you’ll get more”. Nevertheless, it seems to offer a bit more transparency regarding passenger amenities, and ala carte pricing.
From now on, when you buy a ticket with Frontier, you must select one of three fare levels:
- Classic Plus — ticket is fully refundable, with no fee for changing it, plus customers get priority boarding, two free checked-bags, complimentary DIRECTV, free snack, and enhanced miles earnings
- Classic – all of the above, except the ticket is not fully refundable — there is a $50 fee for itinerary changes, a $75 fee for same-day changes, and lesser miles earnings
- Economy — you get the cheapest seat, with none of the above frills
According to the press release, the mid-range choice, Classic, is only about $20 more than economy so I suspect that will be pretty popular. |
December 10, 2008
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It’s that time of year again — for New Year’s Predictions — and I see a need to jump into the fray.
That’s because I just read an article that states, “not only will airline prices continue to drop in 2009, but travelers will get more bang for their buck” on U.S. airlines.
Sorry, but that’s a bit too rosy. Overall, I predict that domestic ticket prices will stay at or near post-9/11 highs, and actually exceed those highs if you factor in such things as the past year’s fees on everything from bags to better seats. However, the picture is brighter on the international side. Here’s my reasoning:
DOMESTIC AIRFARE: We had more than 30 attempted airfare hikes (most of them, successful) between the summers of 2007 and 2008. And since then, the airlines have shown unusual discipline in cutting capacity, cutting seats — in order to keep their planes full. The situation is stable, and therefore prices will remain high, with the exception of targeted airfare sales — like the current crop of holiday sales.
INTERNATIONAL AIRFARE: There was a rush to make more seats available on these higher-margin flights, but some of these seats are flying empty, which means they are being discounted. Add to the equation the fact that fuel price drops can more dramatically change the cost structure of international flights with their newer, more fuel efficient aircraft — and that adds up to good news for passengers. So does low cost Ryanair’s expected entry into transatlantic flights — they say they may fly across the Pond for as little as $20 — or less.
Clearly, this is a good news/not so good news scenario, in which the winners will be the people who know when and where to find the best deals available, every time.
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November 24, 2008
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Last week, reader Marilyn saw the airline ticket she purchased this summer go down in price, and I suggested some options on how she might still be able to save some money or even make up the difference in the two fares in the form of a voucher.
I want to dive into those options a bit deeper today.
For domestic airline tickets, the prevailing charge to change a ticket is $150; called the “change fee”. This fee is part of the rules of your airfare. However, there is a process, sometimes called a “rollover,” which addresses ticket prices going down on a flight (same flight) that you have already already purchased. In such cases, there are often special rules outside of the “change fee” — allowing you to typically get a voucher for the difference (you have to contact the airline, because they do not do it automatically).
Unfortunately, this “feature” on airlines that have it, is not easy to find on their websites so we did a bit of digging and found the following:
- Alaska Airlines has no fee for same flight price drops (we couldn’t find an online link but spoke with a couple of reps, evidently it is built into their online ticket change tool)
- American Airlines doesn’t have anything special for price drops outside of same day of purchase, the normal change fee applies
- Continental Airlines doesn’t have anything special for price drops outside of same day of purchase, the normal change fee applies
- Delta Air Lines1 doesn’t have anything special for price drops outside of same day of purchase, the normal change fee applies
- JetBlue has no fee for same flight price drops (we couldn’t find an online link, but spoke with a couple of reps. Use their online change tool, or give them a call)
- Northwest Airlines offers vouchers for flight price drops, and according to reps charges a fee of $50 for the process.
- Southwest Airlines has no fee for same flight price drops (built into their online ticket change tool)
- United Airlines2 has no fee for same flight price drops as long as flight meets listed criteria.
- US Airways doesn’t have anything special for price drops outside of same day of purchase, the normal change fee applies
1Under FAQ — “If I have purchased a ticket and a new fare is introduced, can I obtain a credit?”
2Under customer service FAQ. Go to “Existing Reservations,” then “If I have purchased a ticket and a new, lower fare is introduced, can I obtain a credit?”
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November 20, 2008
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This just in from CTV: The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that airline passengers who are obese or disabled and need another seat can get that second seat for free.
The court effectively upholds Canada’s “one-person, one-fare” policy. In practical terms, it means that if a disabled person requires an attendant, that attendant gets a seat for free — and an obese person who needs extra room is allowed a second seat at no additional cost.
Air Canada and WestJet had appealed a lower Canadian court’s ruling, which was rejected today.
It should be pointed out that this continuation of the “one-person, one-fare” policy applies only to Canadian domestic flights, and will not apply to the domestic portion of an international flight.
I’m sure we’ll get some comments on this post - who’s first?
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November 18, 2008
Domestic holiday and winter airfare sales have become common place the past few weeks with almost every network and low cost airline joining in the spirit of the season:
Southwest Airlines just launched its 3rd system wide airfare sale in a little over a week.
Southwest started with a 3-day winter sale last Tuesday, then ended the week with a Thanksgiving sale and today announced yet another 3-day winter sale for travel through the end of February:
- Purchase By: November 20th, 2008
- First Travel: December 9th, 2008
- Travel Complete: February 28th, 2009
- Advance Purchase: 21 day
- Cheapest Days: Monday thru Thursday and Saturday
- Price Range: most prices $49 to $109 one-way (not including fees)
The sale includes the popular travel dates of Christmas, Inauguration and Presidents Day. See all the details here.
It is pretty obvious that there are more than a few empty seats hanging out this winter, even with the substantial seat cutbacks. I can’t recall three airfare sales from Southwest in a quarter let alone a week.
I analyzed our historical flight schedules early last week to get some detail on capacity cutbacks for some top cities for travel on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (presented below):

November 14, 2008
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Are you planning to go to the Super Bowl in Tampa this year? Or maybe looking for a special Valentine’s Day escape? Let us know.
This year, I’d like to hit the “big events” that are important to you - and provide you with information on airfare trends and sales - in plenty of time for you to take advantage of any deals.
Earlier this week, I wrote that many people heading to Washington for the inauguration of our new president will pay an “inaugural airfare surcharge” (and frankly, if you’re in the Northeast, your best bet is probably - take the train). Of course, there will be some decent prices - and the new and improved FareCompare.com is where to go to find them.
Want to go to Hollywood for the Oscars? Let me know. Are you a March Madness fan? Tell me about it. Want to see the Indy 500? I’m here to help.
Leave your comments below - tell me where you’d like to go — and I’ll get busy, doing what I always do - helping you find the very best airfares available.
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November 6, 2008
Here is a fairly complete listing of the Southwest Airlines filed airfares between Minneapolis and 57 cities (Southwest has 65 cities in it’s route network).
I left off the walk-up (zero day advance purchase) fares for brevity (hit more to get the full list). The list is sorted in one-way price order from lowest to highest.

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Update 1:30pm CST: Northwest changed the $40 one-way fuel surcharge to now begin 9-May-09 - the new end of the Southwest booking window, so have at it, inventory all over the place starting 28-Feb-09, United also jumped in to match — enjoy!
Just a quick note, it didn’t take long for Northwest to match Southwest as they filed several new one-way fares to match Southwest.
First travel is 28-Feb-2009.
Oddly the new prices have a $40 one-way fuel surcharge for travel after 6-Mar-2009 however, which doesn’t make this a complete match yet … This appears to be a filing artifact where Northwest was charging $80 roundtrip on fares after the previous close of Southwest’s booking window (6-Mar-2009) — Southwest extended its schedules into May this morning.
I presume they’ll fix that shortly. So don’t buy those tickets until after 3pm today on Northwest or you’ll get the $80 fuel surcharge which would still be less than half the previous price …
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Update 11:30 EST: Schedules on Southwest just opened up to 8-May-2009 (MSP hasn’t shown up quite yet, should shortly).
Late Wednesday evening Southwest Airlines filed new airfare between 56 destinations and Minneapolis (hub city of Northwest Airlines — newly merged with Delta).
Southwest had previously announced flights between Minneapolis and Chicago Midway airport to begin in early March with connections to the rest of Southwest route network.
The newly filed airfares have a travel start date of 8-March-2009.
We are likely to be in for some serious fireworks on prices out of Minneapolis in the coming days for Spring travel — the new Southwest non-stop route between Minneapolis and Chicago (Midway) has a rock bottom price of $69 one-way (21 days advance purchase required).
Currently the cheapest one-way airfare on Northwest, American and United (MSP-CHI) is is $426 one-way (they only file cheaper airfares currently requiring a roundtrip).
The cheapest roundtrip airfare on these legacy airlines MSP-CHI (not including the holiday only specials recently filed) is $376 roundtrip (or $188 one-way equivalent).
The legacy airlines will quickly have to restructure their airfares, by offering one-way fares instead of the 2 night minimum stay roundtrip fares they currently file — likely matching Southwest’s new price points.
Northwest in the past has hit upstart hub competition with slashed prices as well as putting on new flights with larger single aisle aircraft like the Boeing 757 — they have already signaled they are ready for the battle.
As of this morning Southwest only allows booking through March 6, 2009 — we are likely to see the schedules extended shortly by Southwest to allow bookings on these new routes and prices.
I’ll be posting a comprehensive airfare rundown later today.
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November 5, 2008
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Pundits have long called Barack Obama the “rock star” of presidential candidates - so don’t be surprised if everyone decides to flock to D.C. in January for his swearing-in ceremony. Think of it as a Super Bowl-type event.
A little advice: If you decide to go, start shopping for airfare, right now.
Face it, airline tickets to last year’s Super Bowl host city Phoenix were going for 3 or 4 times the usual price. And the price of Phoenix hotels was nearly as bad — one fleabag rented rooms for $600 a night!
The good news: Airfare may not be quite so steep for the January 20th festivities - after all, the nation’s capital is served by three airports (Reagan, Dulles and Baltimore).
But here’s something else to ponder: The Willard Hotel - that jewel of Washingtonian lodging places - is no longer accepting reservations for the inauguration. The swank hotel is all sold out.
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November 4, 2008

Ever wonder why you ask for a quote 3 times during the day and get a different price?
Well the chart above shows how many new lower low’s (cheapest price point in the city pair went lower) and higher low’s (cheapest price point in the city pair got higher).
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For reference airfare between 100 cities is about 4,900 (city pairs)– estimate calculation 100 times 100 = 10,000; half of that because North American airfares are bi-directional = 5,000; Subract 100 because you can’t fly to yourself = 4,900 city pairs ….. There are over 800 cities with scheduled air service in North America, with only 340 cities which have service with at least one aircraft that has 50 or more seats
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There is so much activity each feed that it can’t be posted in a chart like this, (remember these are only lows — airlines typically have 8 to 10 price points domestically) so I only took activity amounts that changed over 500 city pairs (markets) in that particular airfare feed distribution where the previous low was moved lower or higher
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You can see the Northwest filed holiday special at 8pm Tuesday last week and the subsequent matching activity in following days as airlines jockey for position(17,000+ city pairs)
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Notice how the weekends move up in price — the reason is typically that cheaper airfare expire on Friday. Also notice that on a given day some markets get cheaper while others get more expensive
Tip: better to start shopping Monday at noon through Wednesday evening.
I might update this in a few days as I think it shows a unique view of a small portion of what we track at FareCompare.com.
October 31, 2008
Our friends at SkyTalk and AirlineBiz note today that J.P. Morgan is “throwing water” on an announcement we made that leisure travelers have gotten a break this week from sky high ticket prices around the holidays.
Their research note entitled “Holiday Prices Move Higher” and cites:
- AirTran raised its 7 day advance purchase fares by $5-$15 one-way … widely matched by competitors — equating leisure travelers who had been getting quotes in the $400-$600 roundtrip range for holiday travel in the past month; who are now getting quotes for $200-$400 roundtrip for those same trips — with procrastinators and business travelers who buy 7 day advance purchase airfare on AirTran routes (and it’s competitors) has me scratching my head.
I pulled the data from our historical database on AirTran’s Atlanta hub for longer trips (1200 miles or more roundtrip — about 25 destination cities with filed airfare) and put together a sheet with the daily average cheapest 7 day advance price for the month of October 2007 and 2008.
The data doesn’t support the premise that AirTran 7 day advance prices are higher (for the holidays) as cited, rather the contrary. October 2008 is highly volatile and overall lower for 7 day advance fares compared to the same month last year — 10 days in October 2008 were over 40 percent lower than 2007 (airfare sales) — AirTran is notorious for weekly quick in and out “airfare specials” (as clearly evident in the graphic below).

Also shown is an example of AirTran out-the-door ticket prices for a 7 night non-stop roundtrip departing each day in November from Atlanta to Detroit — looks like a pretty good deal to me for Thanksgiving travel (8-Nov-2008 is the 7 day advance purchase price breakpoint; Northwest and Delta have similar pricing in the month for their non-stops).

- You’ll be paying for that suitcase - yes airline fees both new and increased add a wrinkle to the total cost of a trip this year (and likely for many years to come). Consumers should be very aware of these non-ticket charges and prepare accordingly.
- Sales not earlier this year - I checked our historical databases each year from 2004 on and “JOY” Northwest fares did not become the cheapest in the marketplace on until Mid-November mainly because Northwest files a ton of very cheap “K” fares (I call them “Crazy Ivan” fares) that are typically super cheap, good only on Tue/Wed and only blacked out on peak holiday travel days — leaving other off-peak days around the holiday cheaper (with limited inventory).
- Holiday Prices Broadly Higher - we have documented in excruciating detail the run up of 21 attempted airfare hikes this year and the minimalistic pull back in fuel surcharges since oil has dropped in the last 3 months (by over $80 dollars a barrel!).
The disproportionate amount of higher prices this year are being levied on business travelers via a combination of higher fuel surcharges and onerous minimum stay requirements. Small cities with little competition are also bearing the brunt of hefty increases because there is less competition to drive down system wide airfare hikes.
This holiday season is about getting a “better bad deal” - the holiday airfare sale we highlighted is “significant” — to be honest I was worried in early July that airlines would not file holiday sales after announcing unprecedented seat cutbacks (see the scope of the domestic holiday travel price breaks in this graph using our proprietary software). Recent trends in international ticket prices are also down — highlighting both seasonal and economic softness. These down trends provide a welcome respite from this year’s march to ever higher ticket prices — air travelers actually have a much better shot at visiting family and friends over the holidays today than they did just a few short weeks ago.
Our release (portions of which were used by AP in its article that evidently caused this stir) simply noted the “largest volume of sale activity of the year” — a pleasant surprise. It was not an analysis of price trends in 2008 which have been covered in several other articles as recently as the end of September — where we noted that airfares where up from 20 to 40 percent (metros vs. small cities).
Nonetheless, it isn’t just me that is seemingly “out of touch” with holiday prices – take our friends at Farecast who have excellent airfare technology:
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