October 3, 2008
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Been perusing the latest statistics from the Dept. of Transportation - for August - and overall airline on-time rates are up:
- Aug. 08 - 78.4 %
- Jul. 08 — 75.7%
- Aug. 07 — 71.7 %
For you scorekeepers out their, Hawaiian Airlines had the best on-time arrival rate, and JetBlue had the worst. Remember, that’s just for the month of August.
Bad news: The rate of mishandled baggage even with all the flight cutbacks is also up compared to the month earlier - okay, it’s up slightly (down year over year)
But since many of us now pay bag fees, I think that any additional “mishandling” is just not right.
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A lively and somewhat heated discussion occurred while I sat on a panel of distinguished colleagues at Southwest Airlines’ “Media Day”. In my semi-prepared remarks on 2010 travel trends I noted that the chances of lawmakers enacting a “Passenger Bill of Rights” were good and was in favor of something in this area.
This seemed to cause quite a stir as both panelists and bystanders began sounding off about the pros and cons of “more government regulation”required by the currently proposed passenger bill of rights — which did not make the final cut on the recent FAA re-authorization legislation.
I have to be honest — this is not one of my daily discussion topics — but I have a pretty simple take on the situation and a quick thought on simplifying the current PBOR legislation.
Given we are are about to cough up $1,000,000,000,000 on a 3-page financial bailout bill likely to pass today (yes I know the pork has made it more pages) — I suggest a 1 line passenger bill of rights:
Stuck on Tarmac for over 3 hours — Someone has to go to Jail — Passengers get to pick.
I don’t care if the passengers choose the head of the FAA, airport Chairman, airline CEO or pilot — even if it is just the county lockup for the night — somehow I think we might have one occurrence of the situation and thereafter, magically someone would figure out how to slide up some stairs and get stranded people off a stuck aircraft …
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September 30, 2008
I was reading a widely picked up Associated Press (AP) airfare story (via USA Today) this morning which was further highlighted in one of my favorite blogs “Today in the Sky” (Ben Mutazbaugh).
The premise and title of the article is that airfares are not up in some places “Airfares Aren’t Taking Off Everywhere”.
As I read the report what caught my eye first was the lead statement that there has been 22 airfare increases this year (not true there has been 22 system wide legacy airline attempted increases this year with 15 successes as documented in my blog in excruciating detail using our proprietary software - and not credited in the story — Update: AP contacted me to note there was a graphic with the info — crediting us — but it did not make the wire story.
Regardless of that small oversight (after all it is presidentialTV ad campaign season) what had me befuddled was the statement that “business fares were down for New York and Phoenix” - my first thought was that this would be awfully difficult since domestic fuel surcharges for business fares are up over $100 compared to last year (I recently posted a comprehensive domestic airline ticket fuel surcharge report). The only way this could be true is if the report they used didn’t include fuel surcharges (likely) in the price or that base prices were down $100 (unlikely)– (nor did they mention the fact that checked bag fees could apply to some business travelers also driving up out-the-door prices).
Of course now that I was curious a wrote a couple of database queries to pull last years and this year’s business airfare prices (3 day advance purchase) for New York and Phoenix from our historical databases (one the world’s largest) to the top 25 cities by traffic and this is what I found (average of cheapest price for every day in September for 3 day advance purchase — includes fuel surcharge and 7.5% sales tax):

While not up sharply compared to the rest of the country — certainly not “down”. It should be noted that outside the top 25 cities prices are up very sharply.
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Sun Country Airline execs told their workers their pay will be cut in half starting next week.
It also told them they’d be reimbursed for those cuts - in 2009.
Meanwhile, the Chairman and CEO of the airline’s parent company, Petters Group Worldwide, resigned yesterday - he is the target of a federal fraud investigation.
No surprise here: Sun Country employees’ unions have not endorsed the pay cut plan.
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September 26, 2008
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Saw this article in BusinessWeek, and wondered if you had the same take as I did.
An analyst from Stifel Nicolaus & Co. (who just announced this week they would be covering airlines) said airlines will likely be profitable over the next couple of years, because of all the things they’re doing, including capacity cuts.
But he also says, the high fuel prices will help make airline travel a “mid-priced luxury good”.
Joe Sharkey also seems to agree about this prediction of travel only for the “rich”.
If this premise is actually accurate then their could be a big problem as it was noted recently that “premium airline traffic” is down with the suit and tie crowd as the financial meltdown continues.
I agreeairfares are getting higher, i see tens of thousands roll buy a day,but I believe air travel will continue to be part of the fabric of our lives - for business and leisure. I am not buying into this concept quite yet. The trick for road warriors and vacationers will be to find the bargains - but then, that’s why there’s FareCompare.com - try us and see.
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September 25, 2008
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This word from Boeing’s marketing man, Randy Tinseth (and see his always interesting blog here):
Yes, Boeing is predicting a further “contraction in the world economy next year” and the airlines will continue to face challenges. It’s a situation that remains fluid, but…
But Tinseth said his company also believes the industry will continue to show “robust growth” over the next several years - and indicated the airlines are doing things right by cutting capacity and taking older planes out of service.
Plus, he expects that fuel will “eventually” drop back to levels of about $70 to $80 a barrel.
Hope he’s right.
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That’s what Morgan Stanley is saying (and they’re not alone): actually, the word these analysts use to describe the airline industry to investors is “attractive”.
This forecast is based in part on PRASM, or “Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile”, and why not? We know airfares are rising, and we know that most seats on airlines will be filled with passengers who purchased airfare - with fewer seats flying empty (capacity cuts are kicking in now, so look for 180,000 fewer seats by the end of the year, and millions fewer by next year).
What does this mean to you?
Well, there will still be bargains - they’ll just be harder to find, but FareCompare will help you. And here’s another comforting thought: despite all the economic bad news and gloom & doom from forecasters earlier this year, we still have an airline industry - and at the moment anyway, it’s fairly healthy.
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September 23, 2008
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UPDATE: Maybe this new airline isn’t so brave after all. Both of its routes are subsidized under the federal government’s Essential Air Service program.
EARLIER: Don’t know a whole lot about GeorgiaSkies, but I do know this brand new airline - and the people who run it - have courage.
After all, they’re starting out in such a volatile environment (crazy oil prices, worsening economy) plus GeorgiaSkies’ schedule is a bit on the light side: you can fly between Atlanta and Macon or Atlanta and Athens. I should note that the distance between Atlanta and Macon is 87 miles - while the distance between Atlanta and Athens is 73 miles.
There are some who would call that - driving distance.
Still, as I said, this airline is game: it has its “state of the art PropJets” (which means the site can boast that they’re “Committed to a Greener Georgia”) and, when the airline debuts on Sept. 29, it will offer $9 promotional flights. It also has a charter business.
If anyone gives GeorgiaSkies a try, let me know.
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September 19, 2008
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Airports and airlines may not be actual enemies - but they co-exist under a very uneasy detente. And they don’t much look for favors from one another.
So that’s why this story about Boston’s Logan International is a little unusual - although it’s also a story about airport self- preservation. You see, Logan has been looking for ways to save money, to “hold onto carriers burdened by high fuel bills” according to the Boston Globe.
And by reducing hours and services of some offices and leaving some positions vacant, they managed to save up to $18 million (over the next several months). And what are they going to do with it?
Rebates. The airlines serving Logan will be getting rebate checks in the mail. Maybe a couple of hundred thousand per airline. Wonder if any other airports will be following suit?
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September 18, 2008
At lunch time today, in a similar fashion to the recently posted International Fuel Surcharge Report — I analyzed over 193,000 publicly filed airfare from our Farecompare.com Labs database between the Top 50 U.S. Domestic Cities by Non-Stop Traffic (all combinations).
The intent was to pull all of the fuel surcharges and report on them to provide a baseline for future reports on airlines activities regarding the increase or rolling back these fuel surcharges which has been a hot topic in recent weeks as the price of oil has dropped below $100/barrel from $147/barrel.
Average U.S. Domestic Roundtrip Fuel Surcharge by Airline

Of the 193,000 airfares analyzed in approximately 1,200 city pairs just over 75,000 or 38 percent of filed airfares had no surcharges - these tend to on the cheapest most competitive airfares especially on Southwest routes. 44 percent of the 193,000 airfare with a fuel surcharge were targeted at business travelers (those airfare with 7 days or less advance purchase purchase required). Leisure travelers were not as hard hit as business travelers.
The highest fuel surcharge was $300 roundtrip (on several Honolulu airfares) and outside of Hawaii $220 roundtrip was the highest(see the $ breakdown by % at the end of th report).
The airfares pulled for these city pairs from our database included both coach and first class cabins. Sample does not include Southwest Airlines.
(more…)
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I am sure a lot of you saw this coming. Barring a last minute miracle, the Italian airline is facing collapse.
A last minute offer to buy Alitalia by a consortium of Italian industrialists was withdrawn.
If you had tickets on the bankrupt carrier, contact your credit card company — and don’t delay.
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In a bizarre twist of fate today — Air Canada has partially un-rung the checked bag fee bell by announcing a roll back of their 2nd checked bag fee charge.
But, wait! Amidst a $50 drop in oil prices per barrel in the past 45 days - Air Canada has also announced they are ditching North American fuel surcharges — I must be dreaming.
Unfortunately the truth of the matter is that I am dreaming — Air Canada has gotten the benefit of marketing of fuel surcharges — blaming big oil and speculators — and is simply going to add the charge back into its base airfares, but I do give them thumbs up for making prices more transparent.
Meanwhile the drum beat for fuel surcharge rollbacks continues — as last week Singapore announced some fuel surcharge rollbacks along with Air France/KLM — including this note today that Japanese airlines are “thinking” about fuel surcharge rollbacks as well while Air Canada’s competitor WestJet not to be out done also rolled back fuel surcharges.
To be fair to the airlines — the price of jet fuel doesn’t exactly track the price of oil because of the refining process — converting oil to kerosene jet fuel — continues to be unusually high in part by issues with hurricane IKE (learn more about “crack spread” and the cost/profit of refining oil to a final product)
Last week the Associated Press contacted the major legacy airlines asking them when they were going to roll back fuel surcharges and the answer — “Not Yet, Just Not Yet”.
I will be putting out a domestic fuel surcharge report later today as a follow on to the International Fuel Surcharge Report I posted this past week so take a peek to get the insider scoop.
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September 17, 2008
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In my latest column for ABC’s news website, I write about airfare auctions. Was I inspired by the governor who recently claimed to have put her state’s private jet on eBay? Or was it JetBlue’s recent auction experiment?
Why would an airline do this? Well, this is a slow sales period right now - summer vacation time is over - and the airlines are not selling all their seats. Why not get a few “bidded bucks”, as opposed to not selling the seats at all?
JetBlue says they’re waiting on feedback to decide whether to do it again.
My question to you: would you join in an airfare auction? Once in a while? All the time? Let me know…
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September 11, 2008
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As Hurricane Ike approaches parts of South Texas and cities off the Gulf of Mexico, airlines have begun preparations to accommodate and provide some relief to travelers flying to/from the area.
Southwest Airlines has announced that it “will not operate flights to and from Corpus Christi International Airport and (Harlingen) Valley International Airport on Friday, Sept. 12, and Saturday, Sept. 13. The airline’s plans to resume service to and from Corpus Christi and Harlingen will depend upon the status of airport security personnel, facilities, and services.” (from MarketWatch)
Continental Airlines has also announced that they are “providing the option to re-schedule or re-route your travel once, without penalty” for travelers flying to/from a number of cities in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and the Bahamas (click here for a full list of departure cities/destinations).
While keeping track of the path of the storm, airlines will also be paying close attention to airports in Houston, Austin, and San Antonio(SAT). Remember that delays in these cities, especially in the case of a major hub like Houston, can affect travel throughout the country. Regardless of where you’re flying, check in with your carrier for details on storm-related delays and travel options.
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September 10, 2008
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Maybe nothing will come of this - or if something does, it could still be years away, but - this is not a bad idea.
It seems the founder of the now defunct Columbus-based Skybus has been trying to create a carrier called Jet America, and he’s looking for a home for it. One potential home-site: Cincinnati.
But not so fast: Cincinnati airport officials say, the airport board cannot offer any incentives to Jet America - or, any other airline.
Too bad. An acquaintance of mine who regularly “flies to Cincinnati” actually does no such thing - he flies to Dayton or Columbus or even Indianapolis - because, he says, airfare to Cincinnati is just too expensive.
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September 8, 2008
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Well, the airline analysts at Calyon Securities think so - that the airline industry is finally “bottoming out”.
Of course, those analysts are really good at Monday-morning quarterbacking - remember those headlines recalling the movie titled, “There Will Be Blood” just a few months ago? Back then, that was the forecast du jour for the airline industry.
Now, as airline health and stock prices are, for the moment anyway, inextricably tied to energy costs, apparently Calyon’s Ray Neidl must believe that oil isn’t going to go back to $150/barrel — just as everyone believed in January of 2007 that oil would stay at $60 or less — for the year.
The bottom line: the airlines are preparing for the worst — while we consumers should be hoping for the best — because if we want to fly for a decent price, we must have a healthy and thriving airline industry…
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September 5, 2008
Continental announced today (following both United and US Airways) that they were changing their frequent flier policy to credit frequent flier accounts with exact flown mileage – instead of decades old standard of 500 mile minimum per flight — I figured it was time to show some estimated stats of the impact or potential impact this has to frequent fliers on the legacy airlines:

My methodology was pretty simple:
- I picked a typical day (in this case Monday 8-Sep-2008) and pulled from our worldwide flights database (licensed from OAG) the number of flights, miles flown and seats for all flights less than 500 miles on the legacy airlines
- I then estimated that those flights would be about 3/4 full (load factors actually are higher recently) and about 1/3 of the passengers per flight belonged to the airlines frequent flier program
- The rest is a simple calculation of “miles lost per day” and then a yearly estimate with a value attached based on miles being worth about 1.5 cents
- The assumptions could obviously change but should be relatively close
- It should be noted these numbers won’t completely reflect many of the domestic capacity cuts that are rolling out in the coming weeks and months
Couple of things that caught my eye in the stats:
- The number of US Airways flights less than 500 miles was surprisingly more than I expected
- If yet to be merged Delta/Northwest follow United, US Airways and Continental the miles/value lost would combined be more than US Airways
Those that live and die by the frequent flier mile especially on short haul routes are losing or about to lose a pretty substantial perk.

Our new “Best Time to Buy” technology — in testing in our labs now — shows the steep jump in airline ticket prices for holiday travel this year.
For those math wizards out there “between 50 cities” turns out to be around 1200 city pairs (markets) where we average the cheapest departing roundtrip price for each week:
- 50 times 50 = 2500
- City pairs have the same price both directions (divide by 2) = 1250
- Can’t buy an airline ticket from a city to itself (subtract 50) = 1200
September 4, 2008
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A: When it misses hitting the offshore oil rigs.
Sure, Hurricane Gustav badly disrupted air travel over the crazy Labor Day weekend, but just the fact that it left all that oil infrastructure in the Gulf “relatively unscathed” as Forbes put it, provided “a welcome boost to ailing airline stocks. Many shares saw double-digit jumps.” At least initially.
Good news - but even better news was that the hurricane pulled its punch somewhat as it headed to land.
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September 3, 2008
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July’s on-time performance by the airlines got better - better than the month before, and, better than it was a year before.
The reporting carriers (there are 19 of them) had an overall on-time rate of 75.7%, compared to 70.8% in June. And now, the “best” and the “worst”:
Highest On-Time Arrival Rates
1. Pinnacle Airlines (based out of Memphis) - 85.6 percent
2. Hawaiian Airlines - 83.6 percent
3. Southwest Airlines - 83.1 percent
Lowest On-Time Arrival Rates
1. Comair (based out of Cincinnati) - 63.3 percent
2. JetBlue Airways - 64.6 percent
3. United Airlines - 68.2 percent
So who had the “best” and “worst” record for cancelled flights? Keep reading, it’s coming right up…
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File this under “Sign of the Times”: this weekend, I was watching some U.S. Open tennis and saw a Continental Airlines commercial where onlookers were cooing over the delivery of a newborn. The proud papa, of course, was a pilot and his offspring was a “newborn” jet — he explained he was taking delivery of a number of them this year (the jet appeared to be a 737).
It got me to thinking about the long awaited Boeing Dreamliner — a quick google took to me to a site I hadn’t seen before — and I was amazed at a graphic with dozens of tail liveries of the proud “papas” who will be taking delivery (livery = graphic design painted on the plane).
It wasn’t readily apparent that any U.S. based airlines planned on a 787 “newborn”, but after closer inspection it appears there are in fact 2 out of the dozens of “buyers” — Northwest and Continental. Conspicuously absent were most western European airlines who I presume are Airbus aficianados.
I suppose a lot has to do with the weak dollar, the price of fuel and the state of U.S.airline financials — I am wondering, however, how things will look in 3-4 years when oil is not an issue anymore and some of the “non-U.S. airlines” begin flying these spanking new, state-of-the-art planes to/from the U.S. — how easy will it be for U.S. airlines to compete?
You can play airline “Concentration” on this Boeing site (remember Concentration, that old TV game show?) by clicking on the interactive picture at left — simply click on a tail in the picture, and finding out exactly who is going to be “taking delivery” of these coveted newborns …
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August 28, 2008
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Do you ever wish you could get the flight attendants to skip that boring “here’s how to use the life vest/life jacket” part of their safety presentations? Well, according to a report on ABCNews.com, that won’t be a problem on Air Canada’s regional carrier, Jazz.
Yes, Jazz is removing life vests from all its planes to save weight (and thereby, saving fuel).
Now, it should be noted that Jazz does not fly over the ocean - but it does fly over the Great Lakes, and it seems to me they could qualify as mini-oceans. But not to worry: a Jazz spokesperson says, you can still use your seat cushion as a “flotation device”.
You’re probably wondering what these vests weigh: well, we know a commercial vest weighs about half a kilogram — which is a little more than a pound.
Okay, readers - sound off!
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High fuel prices have claimed another victim, with today’s announcement that Canadian-based Zoom Airlines is ceasing operations.
The founders of the discount carrier said today, that they had “left no stone unturned to secure a re-financing package that would have kept our aircraft flying.” Apparently they couldn’t find a stone with deep enough pockets.
I’m sorry to see them go, but not as sorry as folks that purchased airfare for future flights on Zoom. If you are one of the unlucky ones holding now useless tickets, the airline’s website has some information on who to contact, but the smart ones will get on the phone with their credit card companies, right away.
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August 25, 2008
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Are you a snowbird who loves to leave the slush of New York behind you to head to Tucson each winter?
Well, you can still go - it’s just going to take you a lot longer. We did some research for Crain’s New York Business “Airlines cut flights out of NY”and I was surprised at the amount of cutbacks, especially to warm weather destinations. Tucson is one of the cities that, by year’s end, will lose non-stop service from New York - along with Huntsville, Alabama and Daytona Beach, Florida.
And when I say New York, I mean JFK, LaGuardia and Newark.
The legacy airlines are dropping around 10 cities each (other than Northwest).
On the international side, you can forget flying non-stop from New York to Bangkok, Bologna and Bucharest.
You know what this is all about - money and the cost of fuel. The airlines are cutting capacity to keep their planes full and bring in as many bucks as they can. And of course, with fewer flights, there’s less competition which breeds higher prices. Leisure routes are hurt the worst because airlines can’t make money on full flights and leisure airline ticket prices.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: if you expect to be flying during the holidays this year, start shopping NOW.
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August 22, 2008
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Sometimes, you do get what you pay for. And that goes for Buddy Passes.
These are the airline perks - the “free” passes airline employees are given for flying family and friends.
But as this excellent article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution points out, “buddies” travel stand-by only - and with fewer flights and capacity cuts, there is less and less stand-by room all the time.
Among the list of important tips: “Don’t use a buddy pass if you must make it to a destination for something like a wedding or if you have to be back home by Tuesday or get fired.”
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