I got a comment on the blog yesterday from Marilyn – who is rightly upset that I recommended buying holiday airline tickets early this year – she followed that advice, and then watched as prices plummeted in the past 2 weeks.

In hindsight, I have to admit I blew the call – although I did follow my own advice, and bought my Thanksgiving tickets back in June, firm in my belief it was the right call. And back then, it was the right call – but things changed – did they ever!

I don’t think anyone anticipated all the late summer/fall drama on the economic front. But let me go back, and review for you what led me to my “buy now” recommendation:

• Attempted airfare hikes: There were 21 attempted airfare hikes – almost one a week in the first half of the year – corresponding to the run-up in fuel prices to nearly $150 a barrel. And remember, major financial institutions were predicting $200 a barrel oil by the end of the year. At that point I expect to see at least 5-8 more airfare hikes before the end of the year
• Seat cutbacks: airlines announced massive seat cutbacks for holiday travel – cuts of 200,000 seats daily which are now in place. Full Planes = Higher Airfares
• Airline losses: airlines had lost billions of dollars and were very unlikely to be in the holiday spirit this year as they struggled, not so much for profits – they struggled to survive
• Checked bag fees: fees for bags (and other services) – which were not all completely in force at the time – would have tacked on as much as $130 roundtrip to a ticket

I wish I had known that oil was going to drop in 4 months from $150 to $60 a barrel – and not increase to $200 as energy experts predicted. Although that in itself wasn’t going to drive down prices as the cutbacks in seats were already in place.

I wish had known that there would be an epic global meltdown sending us into financial crisis that may take years to climb out of – a crisis that no one seemed to anticipate (and if they did, they sure didn’t raise the alarm). This caused millions of potential travelers to re-evaluate – and forget about flying.

Believe me, had I known about the financial crisis, I sure would have taken steps on behalf of my 401K – which I guess today should be more properly referred to as a 201K.

So what can Marilyn do now?

• Rebook to the New Lower Price for Free: Some airlines don’t charge a fee to rebook for the same flight at a new lower price, up to the date of departure – these airlines include Alaska, JetBlue, Southwest and United
• Rebook to the New Lower Price at Discount: As long as you are staying on the same flight most other airlines have a lower “rebooking same flight fee” rather than the normal (and steep) $150 domestic change fee (change = different flights); these airlines include AirTran – $15; Northwest – $50; Delta – $100; Midwest up to $100; and Hawaiian (note that the fee is $150 on American and US Airways for any changes).
• Rebook for the $150 Change Fee if Savings are Greater — If the price has dropped more than $150, for the same days or even other days, Marilyn should change her ticket and pocket the difference in a voucher – almost all non-refundable domestic tickets now have a $150 change fee (up from $100 in the past year); note that Southwest doesn’t have any change fees – while Virgin America charges just $75 and JetBlue charges $100

We spend countless hours each month working on technology to help people make better buying decisions and we will continue to do so and make recommendations that we feel are in the best interest of every air traveler.

In the new generation of flying, procrastinators will generally not be rewarded – outside of unforeseen external events.

Marilyn, I apologize for being off on my call, but I promise to work even harder for you and your fellow air travelers to make sure they make the best purchasing decisions year in and year out – with a combination of both technology and educational information – on FareCompare.com.