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May 7, 2008

Sneak Peak: Which Cities Have Gained the Most Air Service?

Filed under: Airlines, Airport, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 8:13 am
Comments (1)

Last week I posted a note on which cities lost the most scheduled fall air service - a sneak peak at some of the underlying research I was doing for an article.

This week I thought it was only fair to highlight those cities on the flip side — which have gained more scheduled fall air service.

More air service is always a good sign for airline ticket prices as the main driver of price is competition. Amidst massive cutbacks related to the rise in fuel, a few cities have actually gained service — whether they were underserved or whether an airline is trying to steal some market share — these cities are definitely benefiting:

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May 2, 2008

Sneak Peek: “Mother of All Capacity Cuts”, Which Cities Have Lost the Most Air Service

Filed under: Airlines, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 6:00 am
Comments (50)

AP/ABC News

Last week when I was writing my weekly column for ABCNews.com “Why Airlines Might Abandon Your City” I began to do my research in my normal “geek” fashion and thought some of you might like to see what actually goes on “under the hood”.

I first pulled together some databases of flight schedule data from the end of April last year and that same data for end of April this year. My goal was to compare scheduled fall (October)flight service last year vs. this year (apples-to-apples) — so I picked a typical Monday in October 2007 to compare with a similar Monday in October 2008.

What I found was completely fascinating and became part of the underlying research for the column. I would like to share with you some of these unbelievable numbers that didn’t make it into the column ..

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April 22, 2008

Did You Know? Most Frequently Delayed Flights

Filed under: Geek Data, Did You Know, Educate Yourself — Rick Seaney @ 1:34 pm
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With aircraft maintenance issues and weather problems, we’re used to hearing about mass flight delays at this point. But there are some flights out there that just seem to be chronically late even when conditions are normal.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at which flights are almost guaranteed to be late. Is there a particular airline that comes up short time and time again, or is it a specific airport that feels the brunt of delays?

Keep reading to see the five most consistently delayed flights from the 4th quarter of last year…

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February 21, 2008

Geek Data: Domestic Airline Ticket Revenue Up 7% this January

Filed under: Airlines, Airfare Increases, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 3:21 pm
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After two “sticky” airfare increases in January 2008 (on four attempts since the first week of 2008), the current domestic fuel surcharge sits at $40 roundtrip for most flights.

One way to correlate the effect of these 2008 airline ticket price increases and surcharges — along with the 17 other system wide domestic airfare hikes in 2007 — is to check inside the numbers …

Yesterday, the Air Transport Association released January U.S. airline revenue numbers showing that airline ticket “yield” (average airline ticket price passengers payed to fly one mile) was up over January of 2007 reflecting the continued trend in solid demand, higher airline ticket prices and seat supply restraint…

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January 24, 2008

Time for More MYTH-BUSTING! Subject: Best Time to Buy Airfare

Filed under: Travel Myths, Geek Data, Tips and Tricks, Educate Yourself — Rick Seaney @ 2:36 pm
Comments (0)

Let me put on my myth-busting hat: I just saw this AP article in The San Jose Mercury News, called “When is the best time to book airfare?”

Good question; bad answer. According to the article, late Thursday is the best time to check. WRONG.

The article goes on to quotea source as saying “Our experience with airlines has shown us that they update available seats around 12 a.m. Eastern time every day.” WRONG AGAIN.

So when IS the best time to book? Click “more” to find out…

Liked this? Then check out “How to Buy Intelligently

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January 17, 2008

What’s an Airline Ticket’s Invoice Price? (Guide to Finding Cheap Airfare)

Filed under: Geek Data, Did You Know, Cheap Airfare Sales — Rick Seaney @ 12:45 pm
Comments (0)

Making a good airfare purchasing decision requires a healthy dose of technology and education.

Today I want to broaden your insider knowledge of airlines and their prices by chatting a bit about the “invoice” price of an airline ticket.

Since you don’t actually own the seat you fly — the “invoice” price is related to the flights that make up your trip and the easiest unit of measure for comparison is “price per mile”.

As you might imagine airlines have a pretty significant difference in their costs.

Would you shop for a car without knowing the Kelly Blue Book or Edmunds invoice? Keep reading–this will help you find cheap airfare sales.

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December 27, 2007

Geek Data - Cheapest Cities for Travel on Official U.S. Holidays

Filed under: Airfares, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 11:42 am
Comments (3)

As 2007 winds down, I thought it might be fun to do a little experimentation with our new “Best Time to Buy” database that will be rolling out early in 2008 and take a look at the price of travel on official U.S. Holidays.

Certainly extra long weekends invite many to checkout airline ticket prices and as always I am intrigued to find which departure and destination cities are the best overall for travelers, so putting on the “Geek” cap on this morning I put together a ranking I would like to share…

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December 18, 2007

Some Things I Want You to Know (Hint: Cheap Airfare Sales Info Ahead)

Filed under: Deals, Geek Data, Pricing Activity, Cheap Airfare Sales — Rick Seaney @ 3:10 pm
Comments (2)

Each and every day, airfare changes are made. Sometime, it’s in the tens of thousands. Sometimes, it’s hundreds of thousands a day.

And here at FareCompare, we track them all. A single “research mode query” (your question about a particular fare) hits over 10-computers during this process, but gets you your information in about 2-seconds! That’s how we get you word of the cheap airfare sales first!

We also have over 3-billion “historical” airfares to help you can make the best buying decisions.

Put it all together, with our Email Alerts. You simply sign in, and get the best deals, first.

November 30, 2007

NEW Top 12-List: Slowest Single “Wait Time” Per Airport

Filed under: Airlines, Security, Airport, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 1:44 pm
Comments (14)

As promised, we are revisiting the subject of the “slowest single security line in the busiest airports”.

Once again, the information on “wait times” comes from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Other data and criteria we used:

  • Airports: We selected our airports from a “Top 40″ list of U.S. airports, the “busiest” ones, based on passenger enplanement statistics from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics
  • Days/Times: We selected as our “target” Fridays from 2pm to 6pm (local times) during the weeks from Nov. 2 through Nov. 30 (in order to show a “busier” time than emerged from our earlier list)
  • Maximum “waits”: We purposefully chose to highlight the single slowest line, at a single security-check point, per airport. We did NOT choose to highlight multiple long lines at an airport or terminal; such a list might show only JFK in the Top 10. By highlighting a single “slowest line” per airport, we hope to show you a variety of “waiting in line” experiences.

And the airport with the longest “wait time” at a security-checkpoint? Top honors go to…JFK. Keep reading for the rest.

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November 28, 2007

Geek Data - Flight Schedule Changes the Past Month - Airlines Have Been Quite Active

Filed under: Airlines, Airplanes, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 6:06 pm
Comments (1)

Every couple of weeks I am going to do a post to see what the airlines have been up to on their U.S. domestic flight schedules.

Who is dumping flights? What cities are getting new flights or worse having flights removed? What sort of planes are they changing out and all sorts of geek information.

I picked today as a start for this type of post because of the the recent run up in fuel prices to see how the airlines are reacting:

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November 27, 2007

Geek Data - 11 Slowest Big-City Airport Security Lines

Filed under: Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 7:43 pm
Comments (17)

Sorry, New Orleans you won the top spot on this list. Yes, Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport had the longest security lines of the top-40 busiest U.S. airports.

See how we figured this out, and view the rest of the 11-slowest security lines, by clicking “more.”

Update: Wanted to say thanks for all the response to this post. I also wanted to clear up why we chose Monday (2:00pm - 6:00pm) the idea was to pick a time that was relatively busy, but by no means the busiest time of the week. I am going to follow up this post (see it here) with a look at the TSA’s data for Fridays during the same time period which is a much busier time window. Maybe we’ll see some longer waits at airports that didn’t make the initial list. TSA provides the data, we are just interpreting it across a wide range of airports.

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November 19, 2007

Geek Data - Some Cool Benchmark Airfare Numbers and Holiday Price Analysis

Filed under: Airlines, Airfare Sales, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 12:13 pm
Comments (0)
I was pulling some price data for historical holiday travel this weekend whilst watching my beloved Dallas Cowboys (the wonders of a laptop, wi-fi and hi-def) and thought I would share some interesting things I found while perusing the information related to holiday travel prices.

As many of you who follow this blog are aware, the legacy airlines have increased airfare 8 times since labor day weekend (a few times for the lower cost airlines and probably at least 1-more price increase before the end of the year). But, in the midst of these increases, both legacy and lower-cost airlines have also fired out off-peak holiday travel sales; however, these are only for “very flexible” travelers (cheap flights, yes, but during times and days you normally wouldn’t want to travel) and we should note, these off-peak fares are available only in limited city-pairs.

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October 31, 2007

Geek Data: Lower Airfares to Smaller Cities

Filed under: Destinations, Airfare Sales, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 2:18 pm
Comments (0)

Usually when the major airlines lower prices significantly (airfare sales), they tend to highlight the large hubs and most popular destinations they’re offering deals for.

It’s rare that our airfare processing system notes new airfare deals to some of the “really” small airports out there.

It was fun to see on Halloween that United Airlines has seen the light (or the darkness as it were) and has offered savings ranging from $20 to $300 on new 21-day advance tickets to/from some of the smallest airports in the U.S:

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October 16, 2007

Geek Data - Which Airlines Have the Most Comfortable Domestic Coach Ride?

Filed under: Airlines, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 1:13 am
Comments (22)

One might ask — Is there such a thing as a comfortable ride in coach?

Definitely a question worth debating (so fire away in the comments, but not what I am shooting for) — what I am shooting for in this quick study is to answer this complex question without a big discussion of seat pitch and leg room, but rather taking a close look at the actual flight schedules and airplanes of an airline to see if there were some interesting nuggets to help us on the quest to answer this question (and yes I understand that Midwest is mostly all business and has warm cookies, so don’t send me notes)…

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October 4, 2007

Geek Data - Thanksgiving Winner and Loser Cities

Filed under: Holiday Travel, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 1:45 pm
Comments (0)

As we all prepare to go home for Thanksgiving, I thought it would be interesting to show you some more insider flight schedule information to help you make the best holiday travel flying decision.

The following list shows each airline and the top 10 cities with the most added seats in the past year, along with the 10 cities with the most removed seats. The comparison uses our historical flight schedules for travel the day before Thanksgiving last year versus the most recent flight schedules for the day before Thanksgiving this year.

The idea is to provide you valuable information about your favorite airline (assuming you have one …) so that you can see which airlines and cities you might want to avoid (or travel on).

Click “more” for the list (and for more valuable info).

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October 3, 2007

Travel Myth - Shop “Very Early” to Get the Best Deal

Filed under: Travel Myths, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 3:15 pm
Comments (21)

One of my biggest pet peeves is the notion that shopping “very early” will always get you the best deal. Yes, the early bird does get the worm, but when it comes to air travel the “very early” bird gets punched in the nose.

It should be noted that this discussion is only related to purchasing domestic U.S. airline tickets (not international).

First I want to be very clear that procrastination is not — I repeat NOT — a good idea. If you buy an airline ticket inside 14 days before departure, you are going to pay business rates which can be 3-6 times the rate had you purchased outside 14 days before departure.

So…when to start shopping? Click “more.”

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Rick’s Instant Airfare Analysis

Filed under: Airfares, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 2:00 pm
Comments (7)

I just wanted to let everyone know that FareCompare has released a new tool that makes it easier to find the best airfares first.

We’re calling it Rick’s Instant Airfare Analysis (for now). With the new tool, you can quickly see historical data, pricing trends, star ratings and much more, so you know instantly when your best chance to get the best airfare is. We do all the work for you, so you don’t have to spend time searching for the right data.

Here’s a full article that gives a detailed breakdown of what exactly Rick’s Instant Airfare Analysis can do for you.

September 27, 2007

Geek Data - Which Airplanes Clog The U.S. Skies?

Filed under: Airplanes, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 6:45 pm
Comments (4)

I’ve always been intrigued by the types of planes particular airlines choose for their fleets. Are they getting rid of larger jets and replacing them with several smaller craft? Are they using more large planes in the hope that it will cut down delays? Are they relying on the same type of fleet they’ve always had, or are they thinking of taking on new products put out by Boeing and Airbus?

In order to answer those questions and to get a clearer picture of what’s going on in the sky, I thought it might be interesting to break down the number of flights in the domestic U.S. on a typical fall Monday (November 19, 2007) and show you which airlines are flying which airplanes. Luckily have I have the worldwide flight schedules at my disposal and with a series of data slicing queries I was able to come up with these numbers…

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September 13, 2007

Geek Data - Turkey Day Travel Insider Info

Filed under: Airfares, Holiday Travel, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 10:41 pm
Comments (5)

turkey

For most Americans, going home for Thanksgiving is a given. You don’t go to Aspen. You don’t go to Tahiti. You go home, wherever home may be.

And thats why Thanksgiving is the busiest travel period of the year. And why the absolute busiest travel days of any year are the Wednesday before, and the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Warning Massive Crowds Ahead

Crowds ahead? Oh, yes. And I’m not just talking about the mobs at the airport. The planes will be packed.

Given this summers record-breaking passenger numbers and the well-documented flight-delay follies, we at FareCompare thought it would be interesting to look at flight schedules and compare Thanksgiving 2006 with whats ahead for us later in November.

Fewer Seats = More Trouble

Heres what we learned and can pretty accurately predict:

  • Several major airlines have greatly reduced the number of seats
  • Occupancy is likely to be near 100% if demand is the same or more than 2006
  • Bad weather could throw hundreds of schedules into complete disarray

Take a look at the chart below which shows the decrease/increase in the number of seats flown on the 2 peak days last Thanksgiving (2006) vs. this year (hint - the ones at the top avoid if possible):

thanksgiving.jpg

Yes, some of the smaller airlines are adding seats; but the Bigger Boys of the airline industry have greatly reduced the number of seats they are flying this year compared to last. It is unlikely that demand has gone down for these coveted travel days so look for higher prices (if you can actually find a seat).

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Geek Data - Shows The Cheapest Day to Travel

Filed under: Airfares, Airlines, Airplanes, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 1:50 am
Comments (10)

Total of Number of Seats In the Air With or Without Passengers

Seats Flown

I was on Skype chatting with our CTO (Graeme Wallace) tonight, playing with the world wide flight schedules and we uncovered something quite unexpected.

Delta and US Airways significantly drop the number of seats in the air (flown) (with or without passengers in them) on Tuesdays.

All of the airlines drop the number of seats flown on Saturday (which was pretty common knowledge)

What this means for air travelers is pretty simple — as I have noted on several occasions — the cheapest airfares are for travel on:

  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Saturday

This little nugget about the drop in seats flown on Tuesdays, seals the deal for me on which is the absolute cheapest day to travel.

The logic is pretty simple, supply of seats is lower on Tuesday and Saturday. Airlines use supply and demand as the major factor on deciding to release the cheapest seats — assuming the demand is about the same Tuesdays and Wednesdays (possibly even relatively on Saturday), Wednesday has the most supply.

So there you have it, at least on Delta and US Airways (on average across the nation) the absolute cheapest day to travel (based on supply of seats flown and having the cheapest published airfares) within the U.S. is — WEDNESDAY.

I posted the data in the screen shot above with a graph, it might be of interest to some to see how many more seats Southwest Airlines flies in the U.S. compared to the legacy airlines.

August 16, 2007

Travel Myths - Prices Go Up on Weekends

Filed under: Airfares, Travel Myths, Geek Data — Rick Seaney @ 1:24 pm
Comments (10)

geek.jpg

I ran into this “question of the month” today on Smarter Travel discussing whether airline ticket prices go up when SHOPPING for them on the weekends.

If you want the standard old lame response from the “experts” at the online travel agencies, don’t read any further just check out the response at the link above (hint: their answer starts with a “May” and ends with a “Be”)…

If you truly want the inside “geek” scoop read on …

Short Answer:

Emphatically No, In Fact a Great Big Nothing Happens Either Up or Down on the Weekends

Longer Answer:

(BTW I am known as a bit of a windbag, so don’t shoot the messenger, i just have a passion for helping people make the best air travel buying decisions …)

  1. The bulk of all airfares flow through a clearinghouse in Washington DC, called ATPCO (Airline Tariff Publishing Company). At one time it was a government agency and became private after airline deregulation in the late 70’s. It is now owned by 20+ airlines. Airfares from over 400+ airlines flow through ATPCO (sort of like an airfare stock market if you will)
  2. Only a handful of companies subscribe to the raw airfare feeds that are transmitted 8 times on weekdays (3 times a day for Domestic U.S./Canada and 5 for International) and once on the weekends. The airlines file new airfares prices all day long — at 10:00am, 12:30pm, 8:00pm Eastern these new U.S./Canada airfares are transmitted to subscribers, including FareCompare.com (all airfare subscribers get them at the same time including the airlines themselves). On weekends airfares are only transmitted ONCE at 5:00pm.
  3. Guess What? The airline’s “fares & pricing” group actually goes home on Fridays and usually comes back on Monday morning. It seems (contrary to popular belief) they have homes, children and go to baseball games (go figure)… I have been looking at the raw airfare data feeds for almost 4 years (luckily only one feed a day on weekends) and I can count on one hand the number of times anything of major consequence has happened on the weekend. When it comes to weekends at the “fares & pricing” department, as we say in Texas, Them Thar chickens have flown the coop … translation: Nothing happens on the weekend except minor things they queued up on Friday.
  4. This particular myth probably stems from the fact that the busiest airline ticket shopping days are Monday and Tuesday — yes mostly at work and on the bosses time and fast internet connection :) — so those must be the cheapest days … — the slowest shopping days are on the weekend, so they must be more expensive.

A couple of interesting notes:

  1. System Wide Airfare Increases almost always occur on Thursday night (8pm), giving the other airlines time to match over the weekend. If the other airlines don’t cooperate by matching the initiating airline has to roll back prices to compete
  2. System Wide Airfare Sales only happen a few times a year and also occur at 8pm, and normally occur early in the week — when most people are travel shopping. When an airline starts a sale at 8pm (the fares are loaded after midnight) they have a 12 hour window where they are the lowest in the comparison grids for the millions of travel shopping quotes before other airlines can respond with matching (competing airlines get 2 shots to match at 10am and 12:30pm) otherwise they have higher comparison prices until after midnight the next day.
  3. Regional Airfare Sales and Competitive Price Drops happen all day long, day in and day out and for the most part there is never any rhyme or reason other than competition. These “sales” are rarely publicized and most people stumble into them by shear luck. They win the lottery by accidentally shopping when the airlines get the itchin’ to cut prices.

If you have read this far, you truly are interested in the geeky long winded ramblings of an airfare insider … I hope you can impress your friends with this new found knowledge — mine are tired of hearing about it :)

P.S. Photo is of our Chief Technology Officer …

 
 
 
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